Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Meet Total ...

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No racing... But the clock's been ticking...


The show rolls into town! ...And we just try to keep on rolling!

We bring some nice stats into the 2005 meet and hope to keep the momentum going.

Equidaily.com's Saratoga's Best Bets has "beaten the meet" for the last two years. In 2003 Best Bets had the highest flat win-bet profit of all the public handicappers we follow on a regular basis during the Saratoga meet. We repeated the feat in 2004, topping all the scribes we follow, and upped our own total in the process.

(You can review both of the previous seasons' totals here: 2004 ... 2003.)

But we also bring far more current "mojo" into this race meet. Since the beginning of the year our weekly Coast-to-coast page has been offering up a steady string of Best Bets. From the first of the year through July 23 our Best Bets have rung up an astonishing 78% ROI! You can read more about that feature on the 2005 Best Bets archive page.

So we head into the six weeks of the 2005 Saratoga race meet with confidence high. We hope to maintain our current and past good form and we invite you along to see just how we do...

Voss entry...Charlie Whiskey preferred. Trainer will get his share during the meet and might get off to a fast start with this one. Took him a few tries to get the hung of jumping but has been solid last two including a second-place in a stake in May. The Looper is not quite as intriguing.
Fisher entry...Good Night Shirt preferred. Always like to see a horse who can compete on the flat and take on the fences. This one won a NW1 on the flat at Pimlico last fall. Has since given a couple of good tries over the jumps. Decent prep last time on the flat. Latino possible to hit board.
Hendriks entry...Flying Visit had some good jump tries earlier this year -- but comes into this off of a win on the flat. Thermostat Might be improving.
Free Admission.

Stolen Identity...Really only interested in this half of the entry -- although it's always intriguing when a team chooses the weaker half to go (Nogoodbuddy). Real question marks raised by the drop. They picked this one up for $75K two starts back and now drop in for $20K. Thing is -- there are similar questions about a few in this field. Iffy propositions all around.
Tip City...Drops from a decent try at $50K -- but at least they picked this guy up for only $25K two back. But again, some red flags.
Sir Pyy...Been competitive while steadily stepping down the claiming ladder.
Metro Cat.

Frankel entry...Both halves (Sir Halory, Aristocrat) made decent debuts last year, running behind some good ones. Both have been off since. Frankel shows good stats in the pertinent areas and we expect these two to come out running and perhaps have picked up some maturity in the meantime.
Jonathan Quick...Two troubled starts last year then laid off. Has come back to run decently twice this year. Could be ready to pop.
War Marshall...Very scary. Trained by the master, he could be ready to roll in third start off the bench. Finished just behind the promising Papi Chullo last time.

Bargainwiththedevil...Won Churchill debut at 6-5 for Romans/Ramseys. Maiden stepping in against winners is always a tough assignment, but if this guy can again get a stalking trip and then make first run at the top of the lane it might work out -- looks like plenty of speed to shoot at.
Tetrahedron...Wouldn't be shocked to see this one wire 'em with drop back in for a tag.
Summerland...Anther with some early speed. If one of these sneaks away early it's over -- but we're counting on a little bit of a duel.
June the Tiger.

Pimm's O'Clock...Debut effort looked like one to build on and Asmussen good with second-time stats. Bailey onboard.
Wrigley...They can often last longer in their second start.
Overland Trail...$1 mil 2YO purchase from connections that like them to win early. This is typically the kind I like to put on top -- but Lukas often sends them out for an education first-time out of the box. But don't be surprised if he comes out running.
Velvet Cat.

Guillaume Tell...Gets a little class relief dropping back into NW1 after three straight graded-stakes tries. Faded as 7-5 fave in Arlington stake last time after trouble at the start. Expect a rebound.
Charlevoix...Very lightly raced 4YO from Mott/Bailey. Looked promising last year, now comes off long layoff. Could be tough if able to sneak away under rider capable of doing just that.
Fishy Advice...Nice, improving efforts in three tries at Gulfstream, including a just-miss in a G3. Fitness after layoff is a bit of a concern.
Wood Be Willing.
Baron Von Tap.

Whale...Very lightly raced 4YO. Two 2005 starts had him breaking maiden and stepping through first condition so easily that he could be any kind. We'll know more today.
Shakespeare...Similar to top pick -- lightly raced and showing plenty of talent. Mott's pretty good off the layoff but this guy might need one after about sixteen months on the bench.
Clerpark...Capable on best and comes out of a near-miss despite traffic problems.
No Theatrics.

Purge...Took some time off and now gets some class relief here. Returns to sprint and track he likes. Looking for a wake-up.
Jet Prospector...Looks like the one to beat off of recent good form.
Spooky Mulder...Another one in good form. also has an affinity for this surface.
Thunder Touch.

Adieu...Experience counts and this gal is 2-2 including a stakes victory already. Like the fact she faced early pressure in both tries and pulled away late.
Fifth Avenue...Similar to top pick -- 2-2 with a stakes win.
Klesaris entry...Little Miss Zip interesting with the big-number win in debut, but that was against NY-breds. Hmmm. Cajun Mistress had some trouble winning her first and she'll need to step it up here, but they're always capable of doing that in their second start.
Unbridled Tale.

Kathir...Interesting. In two starts this one has already won just about today's claiming tag so far this year. Some red flags are raised -- but it looks like maybe they're hoping to find a cozy spot and sneak through unscathed because of this guy's advanced age, 8.
Sovereign Kit...AE lister hasn't missed a piece of the pie at this level in 2005.
Sahm Iahm...Just missed for this tag three back. A couple of good tries since against better.
Capo...Two good tries in June against better at Churchill.
He Flies.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed in event of a scratch.

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