Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, December 18, 2004
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

A mixed bag to end 2004. No winners on top in nine races -- but we caught a nice result in Florida that gave us some oomph on an otherwise dud of an afternoon.

In NY we keyed on Carson's Bridge on the City Zip and then saw that one unable to recover from a troubled start. In the Ladies H'cp, also at Aqueduct, we were zapped when ours ran 2-3-4 -- but in all honesty the winner was very playable there -- we just didn't include her in our mix. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

Things were a little different in Florida however, where the "bear" was less predictable. Sure, we got things off to a nice start when our top three brought back a boxed tri ($439.40/$2) in the La Prevoyante. But in the Kenny Noe, while we did include the winner, Jerkens' 3YO Medallist, in our mix, it was hard to foresee our other three running so poorly. That said, with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight 49-1 place-horse Paradise Dancer was actually an interesting play off of a nice win in his last and a solid record over the track. Still, we felt our three were better picks.

In the McKnight our top pick got one of those rides we truly loath. Perhaps it just wasn't his day but 10-1 In Hand got off to a slow start and ran towards the back of the pack early -- and late as the jock never got him involved. We also had the winner in the Hooper among our picks -- but again, our others disappointed and we couldn't grab any gimmicks. So although we mentioned each of the winners in the Grand Slam Pick Four ($2158.20/$2) we only were able to pull some money out of one of the four races.

Pimlico provided a small reverse exacta, while the Fair Grounds turfer provided big disappointment. We had the $20.60 winner among our selections but could only manage third and fourth with two of our others. Certainly with a 9-1 on top the exacta and tri would have offered some value but 50-1 Code of Ethics got up late for the place. The inscrutable part of this equation was that we had Code of Ethics figured as part of the early pace scenario since that is the dimension most often shown but that one -- but on Saturday he was far back early and closed late. That kind of turnabout was almost impossible to predict.

Finally we had an exciting finish to the day and the year as our longshot pick in the Hollywood Futurity, 15-1 Giacomo, turned for home looking every bit the part of a good thing but favored Declan's Moon held sway through the lane and we had to settle for the place.

WAGERED: $429.00
COLLECTED: $301.00

Turf wagers are turf only

Aqueduct: City Zip $50K

Pavo 6-1
Benjamin Baby 7-2
Lieutenant Danz 37-1

Late Night Lover scratched.

Wager: $5 W on Carson's Bridge.
Ran 4th at 1-5.
...$10 exacta Carson's Bridge over Benjamin Baby.
Ran 4/2.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$2 tri key Carson's Bridge over next three.
Ran 4/1-2.

Carson's Bridge...A repeat of debut win should be enough to take this.
Benjamin Baby...Steadily improving and looked good breaking maiden last time.
Pavo...Over-matched in G2 last time. Fits better here.
Late Night Lover.

Aqueduct: Ladies H'cp G3 $100K

Rare Gift 4-1
Board Elligible 4-1
Miss Fortunate 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Roar Emotion.
Ran 5th at 8-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.

Roar Emotion...Looks like she will be able to control things on the front end.
Board Elligible...Nice effort last time against state-breds.
Miss Fortunate...Third start off brief layoff. Capable of surprising on best.

Calder: La Prevoyante G2 $200K

Arvada 3-1
Humaita 5-2
Honey Ryder 34-1

Wager: $5 WP on Humaita.
Collected $9.00 on the WP (xxx, 3.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $13.10 on the ex box ($26.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $219.70 on the tri box ($439.40/$2).

Humaita...Trainer's having a pretty good fall season and this one in coming out of a stakes win at the trip at Keeneland.
Honey Ryder...On the improve for Pletcher and might appreciate the stretchout.
Arvada...Frankel trainee might try to take them all the way. Could be tough if allowed an easy lead.
Something Ventured.

Calder: Kenny Noe Jr H'cp $100K

Medallist 9-2
Paradise Dancer 49-1
Hasty Kris 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Coach Jimi Lee.
Ran 6th at 9-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 6-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-6-7-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-6-7-8.

Coach Jimi Lee...Seven exacta finishes in eleven starts this year -- mostly in sprint stakes.Coming off a just-miss going 6.5F at Churchill.
Weigelia...Likes the track -- but the trip is a little more dicey, especially from the rail post.
Built up...Was cutting back in distance last time -- expect him to be a little sharper today.

Calder: WL McKnight H'cp G2 $200K

Dreadnaught 3-1
Demeteor 12-1
Scooter Roach 35-1

Wager: $5 WP on In Hand.
Ran 9th at 10-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 9-10.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-4-9-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-9-10.

In Hand...Proven at the trip and last should set him up well for this.
Dr Brendler...A neck behind the top pick two back -- and that was first start off a long layoff.
Colonial Bay...Has yet to run a trouble-free race this year -- might surprise if able to do it today.

Calder: Fred Hooper H'cp G3 $100K

Pies Prospect 3-1
Twilight Road 9-1
Hear No Evil 12-1

Wager: $5 WP on Super Frolic.
Ran 8th at 4-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-4-8-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-8-10.

Super Frolic...Has won half of his starts over this track, including a minor stake last time.
Pies Prospect...Zito 3YO was overmatched last time but still has to prove himself against older.
Bob's Proud Moment...Had a little trouble last time but was very competitive prior to that going back to early summer.
The Judge Sez Who.

Pimlico: Jennings H'cp $100K

Aggadan 3-5
Irish Colony 3-1
New York Hero 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Irish Colony.
Collected $7.50 on the WP (xxx, 3.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $8.60 on the ex box ($8.60/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $4.30 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-6.

Irish Colony...Won an open $100K stake here last month -- right back against state-breds today.
Aggadan...Has been going well this fall -- but layoff and the trip are a little bit of a concern.
Play Bingo...Stepping up a little but brings a five-race streak into this.
Foufa's Warrior.

Fair Grounds: Pago Hop $60K

Shadow Cast 9-1
Code of Ethics 50-1
Sister Swank 9-5

Wager: $5 WP on Dancing Liebling.
Ran 9th at 11-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-9.

Dancing Liebling...Claimed this summer by Asmussen and the win in last seems to indicate trainer has figured this one out. Should have plenty of speed to shoot at.
Sister Swank...Always in the hunt and has been facing some toughies this season.
Galloping Gal...Will be rolling late.
Shadow Cast.

Hollywood: Hollywood Futurity G1 $400K

Declan's Moon 6-5
Giacomo 15-1
Wilko 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Giacomo.
Collected $19.00 on the WP (xxx, 7.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected 19.80 on the ex box ($39.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-7.

Giacomo...Broke maiden like he had gained some maturity off the layoff. Followed with a decent try in NW1 -- winner went on to win $1 mil race in Louisiana. Two turn experience is a plus.
Proud Accolade...Another with some two turn experience -- in the BC Juvie. Disappointed that day but has been working well for this and adds blinkers.
Declan's moon...Hard to fault the 3-3 record -- including two graded stakes -- but is going the distance for the first time.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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