Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, October 30, 2004
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes


On the upside we managed three winners in eleven races on the afternoon (Keeneland, 5.00; Lone Star, 6.00, 9.40). That's a just-miss on the day but keeps us rolling along with decent winner-on-top numbers for the season -- since returning from our Saratoga season hiatus Coast-to-coast has picked 34 winners on top in 95 races. That a strike-rate of about 36%. In betting-dollars that works out to: A $2 bet on each of the 95 top picks would have cost $190.00 and the return would have been $186.90. We're a modest win ticket away from moving into positive territory after nearly two months and 100 races...

Otherwise there's not a whole lot to report on the afternoon. We took our shots in the Breeders' Cup races and managed a couple of winners there. But clearly we wanted to pull down a decent-sized exacta or tri with our box plays but we could only manage a few scores that kept us out of the poor house, they didn't offer the value we wanted. There's always next year.

Perhaps the most stunning result however was equidaily.com ALL-Concept. A wagering strategy for the Breeders' Cup that we researched our way onto after last year's BC. Saturday we said this:

(Beating the Breeders' Cup: 'The All Concept'). For those who might have missed that, briefly, in four of the past five years if you had played all BC runners that went off at 20-1 or higher you would have made money. Is that a solid angle to base your strategy on? Hmmm, it might be interesting to try...

And once again The ALL Concept scored. Betting $2 to win on every BC entrant Saturday that went off at 20-1 or higher would have cost $64.00 and would have returned $116.40. A healthy 81% ROI. The fifth very healthy return for this method in the last six years at the Breeders' Cup. Tuck it away for 2005...

WAGERED: $486.00
COLLECTED: $241.50

Turf wagers are turf only

Aqueduct: First Flight H'cp G2 $150K

Bending Strings 2-1
Smokey Glacken 2-1
Passing Shot 3-1

Wager: $5 W on Passing Shot.
Ran 3rd.
...$5 exacta key Passing Shot over next two.
Ran 3/1-2.

Passing Shot...The layoff is a concern but she was facing better earlier this year (Sightseek, Storm Flag Flying) so might have a little bit of a class edge here.
Smokey Glacken...Steps outside 3YO ranks for first time and tries 7F for first time. Hmmm?
Bending Strings...Second to Society Selection in the G1 7F Test.

Aqueduct: Knickerbocker H'cp G2 $150K

Host 4-1
Evening Attire 3-1
Sailaway 16-1

Wager: $5 WP on L'Oiseau d'Argent.
Ran 4th at 4-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-4-6-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-4-6-8.

L'Oiseau d'Argent...Looks like the main speed and might be tough to run down if not challenged early.
Dr Kashnikow...Last might indicate a return to good form.
Hotstufanthensome...Usually in the hunt.
Evening Attire.

Keeneland: Fayette G3 $150K

Midway Road 3-2
Total Impact 6-5
Alumni Hall 7-1

Wager: $5 WP on Midway Road.
Collected $19.50 on the WP (5.00, 2.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $10.40 on the ex box ($10.40/$2).
...$1 tri key Midway Road over next three.
Collected $18.00 on the tri box ($36.00/$2).

Midway Road...Faltered in G1s -- particularly last time. Looking for a wake-up with return to scene of smashing 123-Beyer victory in April.
Total Impact...Managed to get up for the win in Hollywood Gold Cup but typically fills out spots underneath.
Quest...Big question mark making only second start of year -- but looks to compete here if ready.
Alumni Hall.

2004 Breeders' Cup

Note: Sub longshot as fourth pick in any BC events where a scratch occurs among other selections.

Lone Star: BC Distaff G1 $2 mil

Ashado 2-1 Storm Flag Flying 9-2
Stellar Jayne 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Ashado.
Collected $24.00 on the WP (6.00, 3.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-5-8-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-5-8-9.

Ashado...Very consistent all year long. Has enough speed to be able to get good position from the rail post. Don't typically see BC horses coming in with Philly preps but looked good win the G2 Cotillion. Tries older for first time but fits.
Nebraska Tornado...Would have preferred to see this Euro 4YO in the F/M Turf but -- does the name Arcangues ring a bell? That one scored in the '93 BC Classic at 133-1. He was making his dirt debut that day for trainer Andre Fabre. Similar scenario today for trainer Fabre. Might add some value here.
Island Fashion...Talented filly ran second to Southern Image in G1 Santa Anita H'cp earlier this year. Came back from layoff to win Lady's Secret last time. Might rate higher in here but jock is making BC debut.
Society Selection...Those two wins at Saratoga and then ran second to Sightseek last time. Knock here is trainer Jerkens is not as effective outside NY home-base.
Live longshot...Indy Groove...Looks to be coming in on the improve and might hit the board if able to continue that trend.

Lone Star: BC Juv Fillies G1 $1 mil

Sweet Catomine 2-1
Balletto 4-1
Runway Model 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Sense of Style.
Ran 9th at 7-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-9.
...$1 exacta box top four (use longshot pick).
Collected $14.50 on the ex box ($29.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four (use longshot pick).
Ran 1-2-5-9.

Sense of Style...This is a case of using the handicapping adage of not letting one bad race scare you away. She looked like a potential star in her first three starts and then faltered last time. She had traffic trouble in the G2 Alcibiades -- but some pundits were critical that she didn't seem to fire when finally free. My take: Prado got to the rail and saved all the ground and 90% of the time things will open up coming into the lane -- that was one of those days when it didn't open up. As such, Sense of Style went in and then out looking for room and by the time she was free the others had all the momentum and she was discouraged. We'll know more today.
Sweet Catomine...Looked good in first two-turn try winning the G2 Oak Leaf and that Santa Anita race has been a good prep for this.
Balletto...We liked her in the G1 Frizette and she would be no surprise here.
In the Gold... Scratched.
Live longshot... Dance Away Capote...Just missed in Alcibiades. Closing style might not work on this track -- but can hit the board at a price.

Lone Star: BC Mile G1 $1.5 mil

Singletary 16-1
Antonius Pius 31-1
Six Perfections 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Artie Schiller.
Ran 12th at 7-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-12.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-11-12.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-11-12.

Artie Schiller...We've said it at least a couple of time over the past month -- the sub-division of 3YO turfers have been monsters this season. Only blemish on this one's 2004 grass record is a second to Kitten's Joy. Set a track record in the G2 Jamaica last time. Tries older for first time but certainly fits.
Six Perfections...Defending champ is this event. Overall 2004 record not as good as the seasonal record she brought in last year but is coming out of the same French Group 1 and we always like to see a trainer follow a winning pattern.
Nothing to Lose...Hard to ignore that big stake win a Keeneland last time. Also hard to ignore Frankel's 2-57 BC record.
Singletary...Has improved nicely last two times he ran second-off a layoff and that's the set-up today.
Live longshot... Silver Tree...Was on top of his game this summer and then faltered a little last time in the Beyer-fig department. Looking for jock Prado to get him to rebound to top form.

Lone Star: BC Sprint G1 $1 mil

Speightstown 7-2
Kela 4-1
My Cousin Matt 60-1

Wager: $5 WP on Speightstown.
Collected $36.50 on the WP (9.40, 5.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-10.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $20.80 on the ex box ($41.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-6-10.

Speightstown...Strung together four impressive wins to start season, capped by a corker in G2 Vanderbilt. Fade job in last is a concern -- has he peaked? Was top company (Pico Central) too tough? We'll know more today but we'll toss the last (same forgive-one theory as we cited with Sense of Style).
Midas Eyes...Sat off from February to late August and then won two at Saratoga including the G1 Forego. Will need to overcome outside post.
Kela...One of the few on the card with experience over the track -- which included a stakes win in April. Looked super winning two Del Mar sprints and beat pro-tem division leader Pico Central in latest.
Clock Stopper...Has been knocking heads with the best and always in the hunt. Concerned that closing style might limit him to minor award again.
Live longshot... Champali...6-4-1-1 this season including a G3 at Keeneland last time.

BC F/M Turf G1 $1 mil

Ouija Board 4-5
Film Maker 16-1
Wonder Again 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Yesterday.
Ran 5th at 9-1 ...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-7.

Yesterday...Closed well to run third to Islington in this event last year. Sat out most of 2004 after suffering a life-threatening stomach problem. Has returned to win two improving G1s in Europe including a decent fourth in same stake she came out of to run in this last season. Taken to upset.
Ouija board...The one to beat. Winner of both the English and Irish Oaks. And last time ran a bang-up third against the boys in the G1 Arc de Triomphe. Watching that race on an internet replay it looked like the early pace collapsed so perhaps the finish looked better than it was. Perhaps not though -- it wouldn't be a shock to see her score big here.
Moscow Burning...Could be the lone speed and that's always dangerous -- just take a look at her run in the G2 Sheepshead Bay earlier this year.
Light Jig...Frankel filly only has one clunker in six US starts and perhaps she just didn't care for Del Mar. Big winner of G1 Yellow Ribbon last time.

Lone Star: BC Juvenile G1 $1.5 mil

Wilko 28-1
Afleet Alex 3-1
Sun King 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Sun King.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-6.

Sun King...Improving Beyer-wise in three starts and probably picked up some good experience in G1 Champagne last time. Faces two that finished in front of him that day but can turn the tables if that improvement continues.
Afleet Alex...First three starts had him set up as 2YO superstar, then worked quite a bit to win G1 Hopeful. Followed up with a near-miss second in Champagne. Looks set up for a good try.
Proud Accolade...Undefeated Pletcher freshman won Champagne in third career start. Talented but faces two-turn for first time.
Roman Ruler...Went from debut win to G2 stakes score and was the budding west coast superstar. Then lost next as the 1-10 fave. Followed with a big win in G2 Norfolk but that was against three outclassed rivals. Not convinced on this guy yet.
Live longshot... Scandinavia...Top Euro trainer won this event with Johannesburg and while this one hasn't flashed that kind of talent he is a half-bro to Composure and that one ran second in 2002 BC Juv Fillies -- so he should handle the switch to dirt.

Lone Star: BC Turf G1 $2 mil

Better Talk Now 27-1
Kitten's Joy 3-5
Powerscourt 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Kitten's Joy.
Collected $7.00 on the WP (xxx, 2.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-8.

Kitten's Joy...As mentioned earlier on the page with Artie Schiller, these 3YO turfers have been monsters and this guy was at the top of the class. Question mark was ability to face older and he passed that test last time with win in G1 Turf Classic. If able to hold top form for one more race he's the one to beat.
Magistretti...Followed a third in G1 Arlington Million (moved up to 2nd on DQ) in US debut with a handy score in G1 Man O War. Might have been hindered when running second to Kitten's Joy last time by having to set some of the pace in a paceless race. Star Over the Bay will handle that chore today and this guy should be in more of a comfort zone.
Powerscourt...Finished first in Arlington Million then placed fourth on DQ. Shipped back to Europe to run a near-miss third in top G! in Ireland. Would be no surprise here.
Star Over the Bay...Speed is always dangerous -- particularly in these marathon turf events.

Lone Star: BC Classic G1 $4 mil

Ghostzapper 5-2
Rose in May 8-1
Pleasantly Perfect 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Funny Cide.
Ran 10th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-10.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $23.30 on the ex box ($46.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $82.00 on the tri box ($164.00/$2).

Funny Cide...The 'gutsy gelding' has been ultra-consistent all year-long -- particularly since summer. Historically in this event experience at 10 furlongs counts and this one has a solid 6-3-1-1 record at the trip, including of course, the G1 Kentucky Derby and then the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last time. Could be rounding top tip-top form at the right time.
Pleasantly Perfect...Defending champ in this event. Has accounted for the G1 Dubai World Cup and the G1 Pac Classic in four starts this season -- as well as $4.4 mil in earnings. The one to beat but layoff is a bit of a concern.
Ghostzapper...This will be the true barometer of just how good this one truly is. Shot that eye-popping Beyer two back over a speed-favoring, sloppy Monmouth track. Fought ding-dong battle to win G1 Woodward last time, but Saint Liam isn't necessarily the top of the class. no experience at the trip -- and has to overcome the Frankel BC record. Too many question marks to put on top.
Roses in May...Brings in a solid 5-5 record this year and the pace-pressing, late fight win in the G1 Whitney was super-impressive. Another in here with no experience at the trip although the jock rode him out an extra furlong after the wire last time as 'practice'.
Live longshot... Dynever...Won the Lone Star Derby over this track last year. Ran second in the Meadowlands Cup last time and don't forget that Volponi preceded his BC Classic upset with a second in Meadowlands Cup as well.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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