Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, October 16, 2004
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

Three winners on top in eleven races (Delaware, $4.00; Santa Anita, $10.20, $8.00). So we just nudged out a profit in the win-only category. Unfortunately a couple of those were move-ups due to scratches so we missed collecting on the win-bets on our plays below.

Taking a moment to reflect on our win-only picks since Coast-to-coast returned from our Saratoga season hiatus, in the last six weeks of C2C we've played 66 races and called the winner correctly 24 times, a strike-rate of 36%. Our return is just a smidge below break-even, a $2 win bet on all 66 races would have cost $132.00 and would have returned $130.90. We're one nice price away from making that category sing.

Otherwise, Saturday was plagued by a couple of 1-2-4 near-miss tri plays. They certainly would have put us over the top. But we managed to score a decent play at Belmont plus a few more gimmicks during the afternoon that tantalized us and kept the promise alive that a big day is just around the corner...

WAGERED $348.00
COLLECTED: $317.80

Turf wagers are turf only

Belmont: Lawrence Realization G3 $100K

Gunning For 16-1
Rousing Victory 7-5
Second Performance 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Rousing Victory.
Collected $7.75 on the WP (xxx, 3.10).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $195.25 on the tri box ($390.50).

Rousing Victory...Seems improved since returning from layoff. Finished behind the very good Artie Schiller last time.
Dark Equation...Interestingly his best race so far was an off-the-turf event so we'd kind of like to see him try the dirt again -- but in the meantime his grass experience is strong as well and he's certainly going to compete with this bunch.
Second Performance...Behind Artie Schiller and Mustanfar last time he tried 3YOs.
Gunning For.

Keeneland: Queen Elizabeth II G1 $500K

Ticker Tape 8-5
Barancella 2-1
River Belle 13-1

Wager: $5 WP on Phantom Wind.
Ran 4th at 7-2.
...$4 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 tri box top three.
Ran 1-3-4.

Phantom Wind...Always have to respect the Euros off the plane and this one faced two very good ones last time -- Soviet Song and Attraction. A little leery that Bailey is onboard as he has yet to hit the winner's circle since returning from ladder-fall, but this looks like the one.
Ticker Tape...Ultra-consistent on the SoCal circuit and then won a stake when shipped to Chicago. The one to beat.
River Belle...Makes third start in US for Pletcher and could be improving.

Delaware: Caesar Rodney H'cp $200K

BA Way 1-1
Gran Cesare 11-1
Foufa's Warrior 8-5

King's Drama, Spruce Way scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on King's Drama.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 tri box top four.

King's Drama...Frankel trainee steps out of a third-place finish in G1 Man O War. Should find this spot easier.
BA Way...Another that should appreciate this bunch as compared to those he's been facing recently.
Spruce Run...Was going well prior to last and that one was a poor enough effort that we're willing to disregard as a fluke. Tough if able to bounce back to that prior good form.
Fourfa's Warrior.

Hawthorne: Hawthorne Derby G3 $250K

Cool Conductor 3-2
Bankruptcy Court 9-2
Crown Prince 45-1

Wager: $5 WP on Cockleshell.
Ran 4th at 5-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $10.10 on the ex box ($20.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-7.

Cockleshell...A little traffic trouble last time lead to first career defeat. Reunited with top jock and should rebound.
Bankruptcy Court...Third start off layoff and should be primed for a good effort.
Cool Conductor...Mott runner should be in front as far as he goes -- but that's the question mark. The interesting thing here however is that the fairly conservative trainer is bringing this one back only six days after running in a Keeneland stake.
Hunting Hillbilly.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Matron H'cp $150K

Dream of Summer 4-1
Yearly Report 4-5
Summer Wind Dancer 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Dream of Summer.
Collected $35.00 on the WP ($10.20, 3.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 tri key Dream of Summer over next three.
Collected $18.10 on the tri key ($36.20/$2).

Dream of Summer...In super form this summer. Has only been sprinting so far so distance is a question mark but will be tough to run down if able to get to the far turn without exerting too much.
Summer Wind Dancer...Probably needed last off the layoff. Will be very tough in the lane if ready to recapture summertime form.
Yearly Report...Baffert trainee is a G2 winner -- dusted 'em in a Cal-bred stake earlier this year but today is her first time facing older.
Royally Chosen.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Juvenile $125K

Texcess 3-1
Generalist 4-1
Tazmanian Devil 5-1

Top Money scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Top Money.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $16.10 on the ex box ($32.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5.

Top Money...Hard to fault the perfect record -- but will be tested around two-turns for first time today. Still looks tough.
Texcess...Debuted in a rich Fairplex stake and just missed. Should contend here.
Lucky JH...Showed marked improvement in his second start.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Sprint H'cp $150K

Areyoutalkintome 5-2
Full Moon Madness 13-1
Green Team 3-1

Wager: $5 WP on Green Team.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-8-12.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-8-12.

Green Team...Came off of a good try in a Bay Meadows Cal-bred sprint stake to take this race last year -- scenario is similar today.
Areyoutalkintome...Just behind top pick in best race yet -- but bounce might come into play.
Cheiron...Likes the track. Layoff is a concern but has some good works in tow.
El Don.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Distaff H'cp $150K

Our Mango 49-1
Western Hemisphere 9-5
Market Garden 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Market Garden.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-12.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-7-12.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-7-12.

Market Garden...In good form right now and shows a win this spring over this unique down turf sprint course.
Jazz Ya...Clearly improved since moving to turf.
Western Hemisphere...Not convinced that turf is her best game but she's certainly capable to compete and Baffert put a speedy work in her on 10/11.
The Yellow Sheet.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Classic H'cp $250K

Cozy Guy 20-1
Lava Man 25-1
Anziyan Royalty 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on Anziyan Royalty.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-6-8-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-6-8-10.

Anziyan Royalty...Tepid vote in a race with no clear standout. Inconsistent sort that is capable on best and seems in good form at the moment.
Commander's Flag...Won at Del Mar in first start for Mullins.
Excess Summer...Could certainly better this rating if able to improve off of sprint stake last time. Was off since January before that race.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Mile H'cp $175K

A to the Z 5-2
Hemet Thought 9-1
Stage Player 1-1

Lennyfromalibu, Ninebanks scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Lennyfromalibu.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 tri box top four.

Lennyfromalibu...Won this convincingly last year in third start off of layoff. Makes third start off of layoff today.
Stage Player...Brings in a three-race win streak including a similar stake in NoCal last time.
Ninebanks...Lightly raced this year but has now put a couple together and might be ready to return to best form.
Hemet Thought.

Santa Anita: Cal Cup Juv Fillies $125K

Lady Truffles 7-2
Cee's Irish 7-1
Home Ice 9-1

Wager: $5 WP on Lunar Flight.
Ran 4th at 7-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $35.50 on the ex box ($71.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-5.

Lunar Flight...Steady improvement in three starts including a stake last time.
Short Route...Experience counts and this one is stakes tested including a win in latest.
Lady Truffles...Second behind top one two back and second choice in latest.
Cee's Irish.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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