Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, October 9, 2004
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

Another week where we were solid on the win-side but couldn't fill up our gimmicks basket.

Six winners on top in fifteen races (Belmont, $4.70, 2.60; Keeneland, $7.80; Pimlico, $8.20, 3.80, 4.80), so we managed a small profit in that category. But our plays depend on either a handful of the small-value tri's, or one or two good-value tri's to come in. But Saturday we just could not get over the hump. We had a cold tri in the Frizette -- and, in fact, our top three completed the tri in three of the four Belmont stakes we played, but the value just wasn't there. What hurt was that ultra-frustrating 1-2-4 finish that cost us the tri in three races including the Kelso where we caught the $63.50/$2 exacta with two of ours on top at 9-2 and 6-1, our other two ran 4th and 5th, leaving us out in the cold tri-wise. If we can nudge that 4th-place finisher into the show spot in a couple of races we would have been OK.

Ah well, close enough to expect that we have some value waiting for us just over the horizon... On to next week...

WAGERED: $667.00
COLLECTED: $293.35

Turf wagers are turf only

Belmont: Frizette G1 $500K

Balletto 6-5
Ready's Gal 5-2
Sis City 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Balletto.
Collected $18.50 on the WP (4.70, 2.70).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $14.00 on the ex box ($14.00/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $7.00 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $25.75 on the tri box ($51.50/$2).

Balletto...Steadily improving figure-wise and finished up nicely to wind up a length behind Sense of Style in the Matron last time.
Ready's Gal...Pletcher filly is undefeated in two tries but gets tested here. Could be this good however.
Sis City...Claimed two back for $50K then followed up with a minor stakes win. Should compete for a piece here.
JP Jewel.

Belmont: Champagne G1 $500K

Proud Accolade 2-1
Afleet Alex 6-5
Sun King 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Sun King.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $6.70 on the ex box ($13.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $19.00 on the tri box ($38.00/$2).

Sun King...Improved significantly to win in second start -- which was at 1M over this track. Expect another good performance.
Proud Accolade...Pletcher trainee looked very promising winning two starts at the Spa.
Afleet Alex...Undefeated and coming off of two stakes wins at Saratoga but this is the time of year when some of the precocious summer runners can start to fade back to the pack. Wouldn't be a shocker either way.
Wallstreet Scandal.

Belmont: Kelso BC H'cp G2 $350K

Mr O'Brien 9-2
Millenium Dragon 6-1
Gulch Approval 32-1

Wager: $5 WP on Millenium Dragon.
Collected $17.75 on the WP (xxx, 7.10).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $31.75 on the ex box ($63.50/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-5.

Millenium Dragon...Never fired in the very swiftly run Atto -- but had been on the bench two months prior. Will be tough if tightened up to earlier season form.
King of Happiness...SoCal shipper should be rolling late -- but not sure this is his best distance.
Mr O'Brien...Toss last, seems better on grass.

Belmont: Beldame G1 $750K

Sightseek 1-5
Society Selection 9-2
Storm Flag Flying 4-1

Personal Legend scratched.

Wager: $10 exacta Sightseek over Storm Flag Flying.
Ran 1-3.
...$5 tri Sightseek over Storm Flag Flying over Society Selection/Personal Legend.
Ran 1/3/2.

Sightseek...Hard to go against her in this field and with the fine 5-5 record on the track.
Storm Flag Flying...Has rebounded to be pretty consistent as a 4YO.
Society Selection...Dazzled at Saratoga with two super G1 wins. However, both were over off tracks and she's been on the bench since 8/21.
Personal Legend.

Calder: Flying Pidgeon H'cp $100K

Keep Cool 10-1
Twilight Road 5-2
Unbridels King 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on Unbridels King.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-10.

Unbridels King...Last was just so uncharacterisitcally bad that we'll chalk it up to the yielding turf.
Skiperoo...Looks to be on the improve.
Gold Dollar...Seemed to show an affinity for the turf last time.
Twilight Road.

Keeneland: Sycamore BC G3 $150K

Mustanfar 5-2
Deputy Strike 9-1
Rochester 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Mustanfar.
Collected $31.00 on the WP (7.80, 4.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.

Mustanfar...3YO turf class is bang-up this season and this guy has finished behind both Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller. Might appreciate the added distance.
Rochester...Proven on the track and at the trip -- but flopperoo in this race last year is a concern.
Denon...Frankel trainee rates as the class of the field but has been off since foray to Orient late last year.
On the Course.

Keeneland: Breeders' Futurity G1 $500K

Consolidator 5-1
Patriot Act 3-1
Diamond Isle 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Scipion.
Ran 8th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 7-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-5-7-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-5-7-8.

Scipion...Maiden win at Spa was visually impressive -- albeit with a low Beyer. We'll look for some marked improvement however in second start around two-turns.
Bellamy Road...First two starts have been very promising. We'll know more today.
Patriot Act...Maiden is bred to be a good one and wouldn't be a surprise here.
Three Hour Nap.

Keeneland: Turf Mile G1 $600K

Nothing to Lose 9-2
Honor in War 10-1
Silver Tree 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on Perfect Soul.
Ran 7th at 2-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.

Perfect Soul...3-3 on the course. Won this race last year after a good try in the Atto. Comes in Saturday after a good run in this year's Atto.
Nothing to Lose...Seems to have matured nicely this summer.
Silver Tree...Just nipped by Nothing to Lose in Saratoga stake.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Turf $100K

Dr Detroit 23-1
Private Scandal 3-1
La Reine's Terms 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Slew Valley.
Ran 4th at 3-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$2 tri box top three.
Ran 2-3-4.

Slew Valley...Outgunned in Atto but looks a little better than this bunch.
Private Scandal...Expect him to be in the hunt but trainer is 4% on the year.
La Reine's Terms...Won this race in 2002. Sat out a long time but has gone well in three tries since return.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Lassie $100K

Hear Us Roar 3-1
Partners Due 1-1
Golden Malibu 39-1

Wager: $5 WP on Hear Us Roar.
Collected $28.50 on the WP (8.20, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $12.30 on the ex box ($24.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-6.

Hear Us Roar...Debut seemed very promising and will be tough if able to improve off of that effort.
Lisaized...Stepped it up to win second career start and should contend if improvement continues.
Partners Due...Big race at Colonial could have been deceiving but finds a group that should be easier than last two.
Golfing Wench.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Nursery $100K

What's Up Lonely 1-1
Monster Chaser 9-2
Late Night Lover 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Karbobway.
Ran 6th at 9-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 6-9.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $10.40 on the ex box ($20.80/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-6-9.

Karbobway...Showed good speed and was caught late in debut. Wouldn't be a surprise to last longer today.
Queen's Hero...Solid debut back in July at mdn $50K level. Trainer good with second-start stats.
Monster Chaser...Steadily improving figure-wise. Finished second to Afleet Alex three back.
What's Up Lonely.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Distaff H'cp $100K

Merryland Missy 15-1
Spirited Game 5-1
A Vision in Gray 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Bronze Abe.
Ran 4th at 6-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-4-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-4-6-7.

Bronze Abe...Been facing some hard-knocking sprint types -- should find this bunch easier.
Ribbon Cane...Speedy sort will try to take them all the way.
Flame of Love...Should also provide some early foot. Yet to miss the board in seven lifetime starts.
A Vision in Gray.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Ladies $100K

Hail Hillary 4-5
Rowdy 5-1
Love Match 8-1

Wager: $5 WP on Hail Hillary.
Collected $16.00 on the WP (3.80, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $20.20 on the ex box ($20.20/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $10.10 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-8.

Hail Hillary...Been going well in opt clm recently but was stakes tested last year. Fits.
Rowdy...Lightly raced Voss trainee looks to have some potential. Must overcome outside post.
Chrusciki...Competitive on dirt. Expect on good try on the lawn.
Runaway Martha.

Pimlico: Maryland Million Classic $200K

Presidentialaffair 7-5
Aggadan 9-5
Irish Colony 16-1

Wager: $5 WP on Presidentialaffair.
Collected $18.50 on the WP (4.80, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $5.90 on the ex box ($11.80/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-6-7.

Presidentialaffair...A solid and consistent season was stopped last time -- but was probably over-matched in G1 Woodward. Not to mention he had some trouble at the start. We'll give him another chance with this group.
Cherokee's Boy...Another that has already proven talent in open-company stakes.
Aggadan...Has been going well all summer.
Off the Glass.

Santa Anita: Oak Tree BC Mile G2 $250K

Musical Chimes 4-1
Buckland Manor 5-1
Singletary 3-2

Needwood Blade scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Singletary.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5.

Singletary...Likes the track and the trip. Only concern is the layoff but sat from Sept to Feb and came back to win a stake.
Tsigane...Just missed last time in a good try at Del Mar.
Needwood Blade...Might rate this guy higher except connections are on oh-fers early in the meet.
Musical Chimes.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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