Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, June 14, 2003
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

Another solid day with winners -- six picked on top in twelve races (two events were moved off-the-turf so wagers were canceled per our standing order). However, our overall pot took a hit because we were completely blanked on a number of tries. As we said yesterday, it was the kind of card that, the opportunity was there to score, or collapse. Let's recap the highlights first...

Six winners picked on top which provided about a 45% ROI in that category (a $2 W on 12 races, $24; total collected for each $2 W, $34.40). The highlight of the day was the pick of Iron Deputy to upset the Brooklyn ($15.20... Also, Monmouth, $4.20; Churchill, $3.00; Hollywood, $2.60, 3.60, 5.80). We also had three cold exactas on the afternoon (Churchill, $14.20/$2; Hollywood, $9.20, $28.00). And we had a cold tri at Churchill which paid $51.40/$2. There were a few other assorted gimmicks -- unfortunately the value was in the ones we missed!

At Delaware we were foiled when 20-1 Awesome Time won. Even upon reflection it was kind of hard to get excited about this guy -- he looked a notch below. We also struck out with both swings we took at Calder. The 9-1 rank outsider, Swift Replica, beat us in one race. 20-20 hindsight shows a little to like here, with that one's best turf effort being a nice second in a sprint stake last year. So you could have gone back to that line and thrown him in -- but others looked better Saturday. In the other Calder stake it was again the rank outsider, this time at 29-1. Splasha is another that would be hard to pick even in hindsight. She bumped up to her first 80+ Beyer last time -- but that was over a sloppy track, so she was suspect to repeat that effort.

Churchill also vexed us this weekend (although our cold tri race was there, so that helped sooth the sting). In the Northern Dancer our top two picks ran first and third -- we were kept out of the exacta and tri (our 16-1 fourth choice ran 4th) by Lone Star Sky. This is a decent stakes winner coming from a high percentage trainer, so he's no surprise. But we decided to take a stand against Lone Star because he'd been a little dull so far this season. Our second choice won the Regret at 9-2 but we missed the gimmick horses underneath. Both could have been played -- but this was just the kind of race where a case could be made for almost all of them. And in the Foster we left the winner, Perfect Drift, out of our mix. Our top two were right behind in second and third. Perfect Drift was clearly playable -- there were some angles at work: Third off layoff, turf-to-dirt. But it was hard to foresee the rather significant jump forward he took to run down the very impressive Mineshaft. We'll need to see another one from Drift in order to know whether or not he just 'freaked' a little over the Churchill strip which some horses really seem to take to and others despise.

Our only other thought upon reflection is the wagering scheme in the Hollywood BC Oaks. We were full out on our gimmicks but after scratches there were only five betting interests. So even though we scored, the short field meant value-less payoffs. The original field of seven betting interests was right on the border line of allowing some value for that wagering scheme. After scratches it was a little crazy -- but, oh well, that's part of the game...

WAGERED: 552.00
COLLECTED: $365.60

Turf wagers are turf only

Belmont: Hill Prince

Happy Trails 11-1
Traffic Chief 8-5
Chilly Rooster 5-2

Off turf

Urban King...Obviously you ignore a Frankel stakes runner at your own peril -- but this guy looks legit here off a decent try in his US debut and he scores extra points for having winning experience over soft turf.
Silver Tree...Mott trainee woke up nicely when moved to turf. Looks second best and any amount of improvement makes him a threat for the top spot.
Charge...Also looked good on the Florida turf earlier this year. Needs to jolt that Beyer up slightly here -- but is lightly raced and capable of moving forward.
Lismore Knight.

Wager: $5 W Urban King.
...$4 exacta box top two.
...$1 tri box top four.

Belmont: Brooklyn H'cp

Iron Deputy 6-1
Volponi 7-2
Saarland 3-1

Wager: $5 WP on Iron Deputy.
Collected $58.50 on the WP ($15.20, 8.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box Iron Deputy with next three.
Collected $30.50 on the ex box ($61.00/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $30.50 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
No tri offered after scratches.

Iron Deputy...This guy has really run only one poor effort -- and that was due to a spill. Otherwise he's been solid. Tested for class today and he'll need to move forward but we'll take a shot he can do that in third start of 2003.
Saarland...Big closing move in the Met Mile was his best race yet and a duplicate will make him competitive here.
Harlan's Holiday...If they ran this at Gulfstream he'd be the pick -- but his career is a little dicey-r elsewhere.

Monmouth: West Long Branch

Slews Final Answer 1-1
Belle Artiste 9-1
Balmy 7-1

Wager: $5 WP on Slews Final Answer.
Collected $18.00 on the WP (4.20, 3.00).
...$3 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $17.90 on the ex box ($35.80/$2).
...$1 tri key Slews Final Answer over next three.
Ran 1/2-5-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-9.

Slews Final Answer...Mott filly progressed nicely last year going 7-4-3-0 and ending the season with a couple of minor stakes wins. Overmatched in '03 debut -- but still a decent fourth -- in G1 stake, but this group isn't the same as Sightseek and Gold Mover.
Fly Me Crazy...Expect improvement on last two -- if we can get a fast track (big if in the east this spring). But she was looking pretty good in Florida with dry footing. Also note that the fifth place two back was behind the legendary Xtra Heat.
Wish It Were...Could be a horse-for-course angle.
Belle Artiste.

Monmouth: Oceanport H'cp

Runspastum 9-1
Balto Star 2-1
Saint Verre 5-2

Off turf.

Tam's Terms...4-4 since moving to the grass -- including a nice little stake last time at Delaware. Moves up a little here but has been climbing successfully so far so we'll give him another shot.
Patrol...Mott turfer is always solid. Ran a good third in a G1 on the Derby undercard -- the place horse that day ran second last week in the G1 Manhattan.
Burning Roma...Been off about two months -- but came back from a three month break to crush the field in a nice Tampa stake in his turf debut.
French Charmer.

Wager: $5 WP on Tam's Terms.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Delaware: Leonard Richards

Awesome Time 20-1
Christine's Outlaw 9-1
Cherokee's Boy 5-1

Mt Carson, Region of Merit among the scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Mt Carson.
...$4 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 3-4-5.

Mt Carson...Stretches out after two winning sprints. Won a two-turn stake over this track last year.
Go Rockin' Robin...Another nice NY-bred son of Distorted Humor. Coming off of two nice nine furlong wins including the G2 Peter Pan last time.
Region Of Merit...Started the year in promising fashion with three straight wins including the Tampa Derby then faltered in Arkansas. Took a break -- and trainer is solid off the layoff -- so might be ready to resume competitive stakes run.
Cherokee's Boy.

Calder: Linear

Swift Replica 9-1
Sam's Concorde 7-2
Tour of the Cat 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on Callthesheriff.
Ran 4th at 2-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.

Callthesheriff...Likes the track and probably prefers this distance to the seven panels tried last time. Check out all the trouble lines -- you always have to wonder when a runner continually gets in a jam, but if he gets a clean trip, watch out!
Tour Of The Cat...Seems to prefer the dirt but has performed OK on turf and is usually in the hunt.
True Love's Secret...Loves the track and the trip and edged the top pick for fourth two back.
Sam's Concorde.

Calder: Office Queen

Splasha 29-1
Crimson and Roses 6-1
Running Debate 23-1

Wager: $5 WP on Gonetorule.
Ran 5th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 5-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-5-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-5-6-7.

Gonetorule...Lightly raced and improving for trainer having a nice meet. Will need to improve slightly but there's room here with only three starts under belt so far.
Ivanavinalot...A very disappointing spring. Clobbered in last two when facing some of the better runners in the division. Should appreciate return to sunshine state and lesser competition.
Crimson And Roses...6-3-3-0 over the Calder course including a nice win at this trip last time.
Dakota Light.

Churchill: Northern Dancer

Champali 1-1
Lone Star Sky 7-2
During 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on During.
Ran 3rd.
...$3 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.

During...Baffert 3YO showed some promise early in the year -- including a close-up second to Atswhatimtalkinbout. Faltered on a muddy Aqueduct strip in the Bay Shore but rebounded with a good effort in the Sir Barton. This group looks similar to that last start.
Champali...Second last time to the very nice Midas Eyes, this track and trip in the Derby Trial. He should contend here.
Clock Stopper...Like this angle -- stretching out to a one-turn mile after two very good sprints to start the season.
Crowned Dancer.

Churchill: Regret

Sand Springs 9-2
Personal Legend 5-2
Achnasheen 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Forest Shadows.
Ran 9th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-9.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-7-8-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-7-8-9.

Forest Shadows...Undefeated in three tries on the turf, including a good stakes win right here last month.
Sand Springs...Really seems to have stepped it up as a 3YO and could improve further making third start of '03.
Keiai Sakura...Has been behind -- but close -- top two in last couple of starts. If you like them you gotta like this one.

Churchill: Fleur De Lis H'cp

You 1-2
Printemps 6-1
Nonsuch Bay 9-1

Wager: $5 W on You.
Collected $7.50 on the W (3.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $14.20 on the ex box ($14.20/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $7.10 on the ex box.
...$2 tri key You over next three.
Collected $51.40 on the tri key ($51.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $25.70 on the tri box.

You...Expect Bailey to keep the pace a little more realistic and have something more in the tank late than she did last time. Won a two-turn G2 two back right here with Bailey onboard.
Printemps...Capable of good things but doesn't always get the job done. Will be rolling late but it might be too late.
Nonsuch Bay...Another that lacks some consistency but is a G1 winner on best.
Charmed gift.

Churchill: Stephen Foster H'cp

Perfect Drift 6-1
Mineshaft 3-5
Aldebaran 3-1

Slider among the scratched.

Wager: $5 W on Mineshaft.
Ran 2nd.
...$5 exacta Mineshaft over Aldebaran.
Ran 2/3.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-5.
...$1 tri key Mineshaft over next three.
Ran 2/3-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-5.

Mineshaft...The post position is no bonus but this guy is red-hot and can probably regress some and still win this event.
Aldebaran...Sure, he has some distance question marks but he was solid at eight furlongs so it's hard to believe he won't be competitive at nine -- especially with the backing of the Frankel/Bailey juggernaut.
Slider...Been going well since winter.
Colonial Colony.

Hollywood: Whittingham H'cp

Storming Home 1-5
Mister Acpen 8-1
Cagney 7-1

Wager: $15 quinella top two.
Ran 1-5.

Storming Home...Solid win last time in US debut.
Blue Stellar...Frankel turfer is always in the hunt.

Hollywood: BC Oaks

Santa Catarina 4-5
Buffythecenterfold 7-2
Princess V 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Santa Catarina.
Collected $15.00 on the WP (3.60, 2.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $9.20 on the ex box ($9.20/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $4.60 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $10.50 on the tri box ($21.00/$2).

Santa Catarina...This looks a little easier than last two. Nice post for the short run to the turn.
Buffythecenterfold...That nice stalking trip last time would suit again in this third start of year.
Miss Bridget Jones...Undefeated in three tries so far including a solid stakes win at Lone Star last time.
Princess V

Hollywood: Californian

Kudos 9-5
Piensa Sonada (entrymate of Gondolieri) 5-1
Reba's Gold 8-1

Wager: $5 WP on Kudos.
Collected $23.00 on the WP (5.80, 3.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $28.00 on the ex box ($28.00/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $14.00 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-6.

Kudos...Making fourth start off a long layoff, first three have been solid and this spot could be slightly easier than those.
Gondolieri...Has looked good in two dirt tries. Needs careful handling though so as not to duke it out early with Western Pride -- unless that one wants to let this one get an easy lead. We'll see.
Western Pride...Banged two very high Beyers so far this year -- any improvement in third start will make him tough, tough, tough.
Fleetstreet Dancer.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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