Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, March 15, 2003
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

Another solid afternoon. We had a slightly better than 50% ROI with the picks -- and while that's nothing to sneeze at, it could have been even better. The nightcap of our coast-to-coast card -- chronologically -- turned out to be the feature from Oaklawn. The results there put us over the top as Bien Nicole, our 8-1 top pick, won, followed by Red n'Gold (9-1), Mandy's Gold (2-5), and Reason To Talk (15-1) -- our fourth, second and third picks respectively. We collected a nice exacta ($117.80/$2) and tri ($278.00/$2) -- but a fast-closing Reason To Talk just missed the show spot and certainly the tri would have spiked significantly if the 15-1 shot had replaced the 2-5 fave. Still, we can't complain about a solid effort on the card.

Three winners on top in seven races (Aqueduct, $3.30, $5.50; Oaklawn, $18.00). That translates to a nice 90% ROI on straight $2 win bets ($14 wagered, $26.80 collected). Note that we lost two events -- unfortunately. Grass races, with their large and competitive fields, always offer good value. But Saturday, of the three turf events on the card, the two at Gulfstream were washed off the grass -- and a steady drizzle at Santa Anita caused a couple of ours to be scratched.

Otherwise, a good mix of exactas and tri's -- although some of them kept up with the trend of the month, offering less than spectacular value. We hit the exacta ($17.80/$2) and tri ($54.00/$2) cold in the Toboggan at Aqueduct. Our top three also combined for the boxed tri ($68.00/$2) in the Florida Derby. And at Aqueduct (Broadway) and Oaklawn we had the winner on top followed by a mix of our other picks that allowed us to collect the exacta and tri in both races.

A fun day.

WAGERED: $312.00
COLLECTED: $472.60

Turf wagers are turf only

Aqueduct: Broadway H'cp

Shawklit Mint 3-5
Boundanddetermined 13-1
She's Got The Beat 4-1

Wager: $5 WP Shawklit Mint.
Collected $14.50 on the WP (3.30, 2.50).
...$3 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $13.00 on the ex box ($26.00/$2).
...$1 triple box top four.
Collected $31.75 on the tri box ($63.50/$2).

Shawklit Mint...Has a history of faltering when stepping into stakes company but the 7-4-2-0 record over the inner surface and the two nice wins in last four starts are too good to ignore.
Drama Queen...Another that likes the track and the trip. Makes fourth start of off layoff and should go well.
She's Got The Beat...Make that three that are happy racing stayed on the inner ring. This one is stepping up slightly off of a couple of nice alw wins.

Aqueduct: Toboggan H'cp

Affirmed Success 8-5
Peeping Tom 4-1
Captain Red 4-1

Wager: $5 WP Affirmed Success.
Collected $22.25 on the WP (5.50, 3.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $17.80 on the ex box ($17.80/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $8.90 on the ex box.
...$1 tri key Affirmed Success over next three.
Collected $27.00 on the tri box ($54.00/$2).
...$1 triple box top four.
Collected $27.00 on the tri box.

Affirmed Success...$2 mil winner is clearly the class of the field. First two starts of season show he's still going strong at age 9.
Peeping Tom...Also has looked good in three starts this winter.
Captain Red...Speedball likes the inner track and might be tough to run down if he gets the jump on 'em.
Gold ID.

Gulfstream: Florida Derby

Empire Maker 2-1
Trust N Luck 1-1
Indy Dancer 11-1

Wager: $5 WP Trust N Luck.
Collected $6.00 on the WP (xxx, 2.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $7.00 on the ex box ($14.00/$2).
...$1 triple box top four.
Collected $34.00 on the tri box ($68.00/$2).

Trust N Luck...Wired the FOY last time and even though he goes an extra half furlong today he leaves from the one-post and once again meets a field that seems devoid of competing speed.
Indy Dancer...Pletcher 3YO went off as the fave in Risen Star which was only his third start. Came up with a surprisingly dull performance that day. Might wake up with return to Florida and the flop last time should help the odds.
Empire Maker...One of a couple in here that have experience at the trip and that should help. Frankel and Bailey on the team don't hurt either.
Formal Attire.

Gulfstream: Marshua's River

Dance The Slew 3-1
Sparkling Ava 2-1
Bay Street Gal 10-1

Off turf -- Wagering cancelled

Dedication...Clement is pretty solid with these Euro-imports and Bailey onboard is a plus.
Sandra's Song...Really started to get the hang of it and become competitive last summer. Comeback race was nice and should set her up for good try today.
Silver Rail...Third behind the very good Cellars Shiraz last time -- with a lower Beyer than usual. Expect that number to perk up in this event.
Love N Kiss S.

Wager: $5 WP Dedication.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 triple box top four.

Gulfstream: Swale

Midas 4-1
Posse 3-1
Whywhywhy 7-5

Wager: $5 WP Massive.
Ran 4th at 9-1.
...$3 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-8.
...$1 triple box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-8.

Massive...Undefeated in two starts but looks to have some potential. If so this might be the day to get some value on him.
Midas Eyes...Will need to bump up those Beyers a bit but we fully expect him to do so in 3YO debut for Frankel.
Whywhywhy...Shaky selection. Was his summer campaign due to concentration on shorter trips -- or was he just precocious and wound up having peers catch up? Hmmm. We'll know more today.

Gulfstream: Flag Down

Woodmoon 9-2
Regency Park 5-2
Free of Love 6-5

Off turf -- Wagering cancelled.

Krieger...Looks like he might be able to take these gate to wire as he did three back in G3 Tropical Turf.
Orchard Park...Mott/Bailey runner is undefeated in three tries over the course -- and also is 3-3 at the trip.
Sir Brian's Sword...Seldom throws in a poor effort.
Bail Out The King.

Wager: $5 WP Kreiger.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 triple box top four.

Fair Grounds: Victoria Lass H'cp

Distinctive Code 13-1
Miss Lodi 4-5
Fuse It 6-1

Wager: $5 WP Fuse It.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-7-8.
...$1 triple box top four.
Ran 2-3-7-8.

Fuse It...Two back won the very similar Pan Zareta here, then followed up with a stake win at Delta Downs. In-form and proven on the track and at the trip.
Stonington...Just nipped by top pick in Pan Zareta.
Miss Lodi...Put together a very solid 3YO season last year including a G3 win and a G3 placing behind Sightseek. Off since Oct but trainer has good stats of the layoff.
Lake Lady.

Oaklawn: Oaklawn BC

Bien Nicole 8-1
Red n'Gold 9-1
Mandy's Gold 2-5

Wager: $5 WP Bien Nicole.
Collected $62.50 on the WP (18.00, 7.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $58.90 on the ex box ($117.80/$2).
...$1 triple box top four.
Collected $139.00 on the tri box ($278.00/$2).

Bien Nicole...Very solid turf stakes runner -- but also solid in early dirt tries. The layoff and new surface might help offer some value but expecting a good try from this one.
Mandy's Gold...Clearly a top notch sprinter -- but she's shown capability to go two turns as well, so they try again.
Reason To Talk...Put in a nice try in a similar stakes here last time.
Red n'Gold.

Santa Anita: San Luis Rey H'cp

Champion Lodge 7-1
Special Matter 4-1
Adminniestrator 7-2

Requete, Blue Steller scratched.

Wager: $5 WP Requete.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 5-6.
...$1 triple box top four.

Requete...Frankel filly makes third US start and has won first two so far for Frankel. Improving sort could prove to be a top-notch stakes turfer.
Delta Form...Have a feeling his record is a little deceiving and he's more competitive than it might appear seeing only two wins in last two seasons.
Blue Steller...Usually in the hunt late.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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