Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Meet Total ... 49-144

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Merrow's picks can also be found on most Saratoga racing says at the Capital OTB Handicappers' Report. Also on a rotating basis throughout the Saratoga meet in the hard copy of the Albany Times-Union.

Turf picks are turf only - unless otherwise indicated.

2020 Best Bets Picks/Plays archive.


5-10. R2 ... ACDB 4.10 x 19.20 t 80.00 s 161.40; R3 ... ABC 4.30 x 7.70 t 13.60; R4 ... CBA x 30.00 t 81.00; R5 ... DCx 74.00; R6 ... ADx 5.80 x 22.20; R8 ... AED 4.60 x 14.80 t 41.60; R9 ... ADBC 4.40 x25.20 t 50.00 s 70.40; R10 .. B-Cd-x "C" scr x 30.80

Three weeks in and our 49-144 is good for a 34% hit-rate with our top picks. And, if my math is correct, a $2 win bet on each top pick would have results in a positive ROI -- albeit by the slightest of margins [$288 bet - $289 returned].

Weather on Sunday: more of the same, mostly sunny, hot, humid.


Per National Steeplechase Assoc tweet from Tues afternoon: Wednesday's Saratoga steeplechase, an overnight handicap, has been put on hold by NYRA until next week because of the impending storm.
Might have to watch the sky as the area is expecting heavy rain on Tuesday night - but we'll keep our fingers crossed...
Iranistan...In a weird race where eight of the nine are exiting duds - we'll give a tepid nod to our man Sheppard and a jumper with enough back-class to have placed in the two G1 steeplechase races here in 2018. That said, hard to get excited after the latest.
Elucidation...Likely to take all the action and perhaps more obviously the one to land on than we're giving credit for -- only one of the group to have raced decently last time.
New Member...Like the top pick - has some back-class to hope for a rebound towards.
Cracker Factory

Naughty Prince...Won debut at Keeneland - probably fits with these.
Mine the Coin...Off the latest.
The Joke's On You...Lead all the way to break maiden last time in first start for this trainer - but, that was in February.
Icy Dude.

Three Outlaws...Looks for a repeat off the seasonal debut win earlier in the meet.
Free Wheeler...ML fave and perhaps deservedly so - but not seen since November. Improvement not unlikely off the 2YO to 3YO layoff - but will need to improve, at least slightly, to much best effort from top pick.
Luna's in Charge...Primed in third start back.
More Graytful.
Dirt: 2-4-5-3.

FOURTH RACE - $85K Summer Colony
Golden Award...Tough call off of the dud last time - but latest work perhaps indicates a rebound is in the cards.
Nonna Madeline...Question mark is the trip but looks to fit otherwise.
Bellera...Meanwhile, this one appreciates this distance.
Always Shopping.

Big Time Lady...Sibs Good Intent and Morrison won their debuts.
Summer Brew...Trainer is good with firsters.
Fastelle...Sib Out of Trouble won debut.
Minerva Doubleplay.

I Love Jaxson...Looks to have a class edge on these.
Control Group...Young trainer going well at the meet - but can he win on a claim from Rudy and a move up the ladder? Fits though if able to repeat latest.
Doups Point...Won't be shocked if we see an improved effort today. There are races good enough further down the PPs.

Black Magic Woman...Sib Magnum Moon won first four including the 2018 G2 Rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby. Sib Speightful Song was 2,2,1 to start career.
Harlem Heights...Sib to very talented stakes performers Pine Island and Point of Entry.
Heavenly Sis...Looks to contend on a best effort.
Love On the Run.

Hard to imagine a much more competitive event than this one...
Winston's Chance...Nice improvement in second start of the season.
Han Sense...Off the latest.
Intrepid Heart...Drops in for a tag.
Super Dude.

She's Got You...Solid US debut to build on.
Kreesie...Talented NY-bred fits with this group.
Traipsing...Can't ignore the red-hot jock/trainer combo.
Miss Teheran.
Dirt: 3-6-5.

Beyond Brown...Goes MSW to mdn clm.
Women Not Easy...If she reverts to early speed perhaps tries to take them all the way.
Cainudothetwist...The one to beat of the debut?
Plink Freud.
Dirt: 2-9-6-5.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halves are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

Archives of daily Best Bets picks and plays pages: 2013 ... 2012 ... 2011 ... 2010... 2009 ...2008 ... 2007 ... 2006 ... 2005 ... 2004 ... 2003

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