Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Saturday September 3, 2011
Meet Total ... 96-344

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Don't forget to check out the Challenge page where we started the month with a mythical $1000 $1200 bankroll and attempt to increase that amount as the Saratoga season continues.


1-10. Winner in the 3rd [$3.60]. We were on fire for the last couple of weeks with winners-on-top - but we've stalled as the days are dwindling down. Now we're in a mad chase just to hit the century mark - but we'll have plenty of chances to get at least the four more we need.

Even without winners-on-top the last couple of days have offered some value to anyone willing to play around with the selections a little bit. And our Bankroll Challenge has added over $600 through the Thurs-Fri cards.

Friday, in the first it was a B-C-A-D finish (top pick "A", second pick "B", and so on) for the exacta $13.60/$2], tri [$36.20] and super [$127.00]. In the 5th B-C-A for the exacta [$23.00] and tri [$52.00]. In the 6th C-B-D for exacta [$41.60] and tri [$294.50]. In the 8th D-C-A-B for exacta [$132.50], tri [$558.00] and super [$1396.00]. In the 8th D-C-A-B for the exacta [$132.50], tri [$558.00] and super [$1396.00]. And in the 10th B-D-C [exacta, $58.50; tri $240.00].

15,904 enjoyed a nice twilight card - which, this time of year, finished under the gloaming. The weather was comfortable.


TV: Woodward, Forego coverage - Versus, 5pm ET

Final Stretch Music Festival: Free, downtown, 7-11pm.

FIRST RACE - Paris Opera $75K
Sugar Again...A couple of wins would have elevated this to an all-time meet for us - but the two second-place finishes by the Sheppard Specials the past couple of days, at 14-1 and 25-1, provided us with some fine results regardless. We'll continue to ride the 'Long Jon Express' - although the odds here won't be as juicy.
Evading Tempete...Euro-transplant should go well in second start of the season.
It's Tea Time...Probably better than the 2011 record indicates.

Punctual Jeff...Hoping that More Than Ready on top provides enough breeding to punch to get this guy home in the debut.
Da Vinci...$600K paid for this son of AP Indy out of a G1 winner. Connections are typically well-meant from the get-go.
Super Saturday...Dam has produced a couple of debut winners that went on to win graded stakes.
Todd Cole.

Lemon Tiger...Closed and just-missed behind front-running winner last time. Seems on the improve.
Flying Sappho...Popped a big number win last time. Not sure the 8YO will be able to put two together though.
Nurse Dolce...Has some closing punch.
Oatka Idas Rose.
Lady's Lunar Luck.

Bluegrass Summer...Perhaps another Sheppard Special. First-time starter is not the typical MO of a 'special' - but this one's dam produced a couple of precocious sibs, including the 2008 winner of the G1 HOL Starlet.
Za Approval...Hmm. A stellar effort bookended by a couple of duds. Will return to grass provide the wake-up?
Belushi...Improvement is possible in the second career start.

Going Green...Debut was decent and dam has produced a number of precocious runners.
Dancing Tiz...Should improve off of latest if there is some pace in the race - but that's not guaranteed.
Earnings Release...Gets to grass and stretches off of a couple sprints.
Stray Bullet.

Manresa Road...Just-missed in debut for win-early connections. Drops searching for win - and perhaps a new owner.
Herecomeseveryman...Improving in three starts and just-missed in latest effort.
Research Report...Ran best race yet when dropped to this level and switched to grass.
Foggy Max.

Hierro...Worked in 10.0 before 2YO sale. Bullet on 8/8 might signal intent.
Darley entry...Both halves have some breeding interest.
Invocation...Experience counts and this guy ran well in debut. Second-place finisher came back to win on Wednesday.
Julius Caesar.
Go West.

EIGHTH RACE - Personal Ensign G1 $300K
Ask the Moon...Could lull them to sleep again today.
Super Espresso...Behind the top pick last time. In the mix more often than not.
Tiz Miz Sue...Could pick up the pieces if the early pace collapses.

NINTH RACE - Forego G1 $250K
Jackson Bend...Horse-for-course?
Regal Ransom...Like the top pick this one might have a special affiinity for this surface.
Sidney's Candy...Speedy sort was solid when last seen on dirt and could better this rating.

TENTH RACE - Woodward G1 $750K
Flat Out...Was well ahead of all but Tizway in G1 Whitney. seems at the top of his game now.
Mambo Meister...Florida invader flopped when shipped in last year - but this might prove to be a better set-up.
Havre de Grace...Super-talented filly would be no surprise in here - but she's going to have to prove herself vs the boys.

Pletcher entry...Red flags on the drop - but Ninety Five South is best if all the wheels are on.
Economic Swoon...If the dud last time was because of the mud, he'll contend. On the other hand - maybe he's going the wrong way. Hmm.
Fiery Rebel...Just missed at this level two back.
One Cool Dude.

Parachute Coney...Pletcher/Velazquez with a debuting 2YO. Why not?
Saratoga Snacks...Decent second in first start behind Pletcher winner who is now aimed at F'Lakes stake.
Tax Return...Sire is new but promising.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halves are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

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