Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Thursday August 4, 2011
Meet Total ... 29-109

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1-10. Winners in the 3rd [$14.60] and 8th [$4.70]. Cold exacta in the 8th [$7.50/$2] and our top pick over third selection in 3rd for an $80.50 exacta.

16,054 attended. Post times were sped up slightly in anticipation of afternoon storms - with the finale going off perhaps a half hour earlier than originally carded - but, though it became overcast as the day wore on, it remained a nice day at the races with comfortable temps and no rain.


FIRST RACE - AP Smithwick Mem G2 $75K
Dynaski...Hasn't missed an exacta in his jump career.
Decoy Daddy...Could prove tough to reel in.
Slip Away...Also hasd early speed. Near-miss in this race last year as the fave.
Divine Fortune.

Mabou...Five-time winner in nine jump starts. Won't win this one by 82 lengths however.
Royal Rossi...Seemed to figure out the jump game last time.
Baltic Shore...Was going well on the flat earlier this year and successfully made the conversion with a steeplechase win in latest.
Worried Man.

Good Deed...Working well. Has some precocious breeeding.
Composition...Worked 10.2 before 2YO sale. Malibu Moon on top.
Flashy in Pink...We took a shot against the Pletcher first on Wednesday and lived to regret it. Might end up the same here. This one worked 10.1 before sale.
Mi Vida.

Read the Research...Worked 10.0 before 2YO sale.
Dayatthespa...City Zip on top and the dam produced a runner named Doc Can Do that won second-time out. So some win-early breeding.
Darn That Trip...Trippi on top.
False Alibi.
Satin Sheeks.

Victory Island...Sire is new and unproven - but was 2nd in the 2006 BC Sprint and is eligible to produce runners. Pletcher/Reole connections add to intrigue.
Why Take a Chance...Win-early breeding and connections.
Harbor Mist...More breeding and connections that interest in this spot.
Sparks Will Fly.

Decennial...Two-race win-streak and seems to be improving.
Margaret Smile...Off since November but capable if ready.
Classical Fashion...Has some speed and might be the one to catch.
Paper Shredder.
On dirt: Same plus, Higher Incentive, Ladyflickerflacker, Alykela, There Goes Molly.

SEVENTH RACE - Birdstone $75K
Rule...Hope to see him grab the lead early and be tough to run down late.
Gautier...Always leery of these S American imports - but this one did OK in US debut.
Sangaree...Hmmm - could be interesting in first dirt start.
Glenwood Canyon.

Style Squad...Improvement wouldn't be a surprise in second career start.
Abaco...Returns to grass and Beyers are moving in the right direction.
Wet One...Has been knocking on the door.
Don't Gry for Me.
On dirt: Empress of Gold, Abaco, Style Squad, Cindy's Joy, File Gumbo, American Angel, Villa.

Estimate...Drops in for a tag.
Eleven Final Fours...Lightly-raced 3YO has shown some flashes. Looks to have been in a tough event last time.
Get a Grip...Needs to recapture some of that Calif form - and the brief layoff might help.
Magnet Cove.
On dirt: Same plus Framed.

Total Package...Expensive yearling purchase had some trouble in debut here last year. Off since and might come out running vs these $25K claimers.
Cockeyed Rooster...Speed.
Gudahi...Also has speed.
Whistlin's Dixie.
Last Hurrah.
On dirt: Same.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halves are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

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