Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Friday, July 29, 2011
Meet Total ... 16-60

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4-10. Winners in the 3rd [$3.80], 5th [$7.90], 6th [$9.80], and 9th [$4.50].

Also, cold exactas in the 3rd [$17.60/$2] and 6th [$37.80]. Top two flip-flopped for exactas in the 1st [$18.60] and 2nd [$12.60].

And speaking of exactas - we're sitting on a rather flukey situation here six days into the meet... Our top two selections have combined for the exacta twelve times in sixty races. We have seven cold exactas and five with our top two flip-flopped for the gimmick - for a total return per a $2 wagering increment of $258.20. That's about a 7.5% ROI on that angle through the first few days of the meet. Probably hard to keep that up - but interesting to note at this point.

12,598 attended on a beautiful warm and sunny afternoon.


Twilight post time at 2:30pm. Also, it's College Day with $1000 scholarship giveaways after each race.

Glowing Report...Wake-up possible with some class relief.
Tempest Storm...Competitive in all 2011 starts.
Malibu Moon Dance...Another that might appreciate the class drop.
Stanford Dolly.

Colossal Gift...Just missed last time with Dominguez. One more try.
Springcourt...Some interesting breeding. Win-early connections. Good works.
Reach a Decision...Could be interesting moving to the turf for Mott/Juddmonte.
On dirt: Same plus Tapaway, Bayamo, Bomber Boy.

Convocation...Convincing winner in a somehwat similar race here last time that produced his lifetime best Beyer.
Northern Giant...Race seems devoid of front runners but this guy has shown some early foot occasionally. Could be dangerous on that angle.
Ice Box...G1 Ky Derby place-finisher makes 2010 debut and could better this rating.
Ron the Greek.

Cave's Valley...Has run well here in the past and might be cranked and ready in both the second start at this level and the second start of 2011.
Endless Circle...Serious class drop which makes him both hard to ignore and hard to endorse with confidence.
Cantrushperfection...Probably right in his comfort zone - but we kinda need this third start of the season to really say where he is.
After Shock.

Saratoga Steve...Can't get too far back early -- and if he stays within striking distance he might run them down.
My Kryptonite...Another that has a closing kick and that angle's kind of sketchy in these turf sprints - but gets some class relief here.
Rice entry...Linda Rice. Saratoga turf sprint. 'Nuff said.
Fiji Star.
On dirt: Same plus Tackle, Molly's Ship, Bustin Rocks.

Sortilege...A weird stop-and-start career - but well-bred and moving from MSW to mdn clm'r. Behind the promising Kinda Spicy last time.
Dixie Shoes...$220K yearling buy has some OK breeding and might improve with one under her belt.
Casa Tua...MSW to mdn clm'r.
Summer Sky.
On dirt: Sortilege, Cupolatte, Aintnothinbutakiss, Dixie Shoes, Casa Tua SEVENTH RACE - Curlin $75K
Raison d'Etat...If last is indicative of the light bulb turning on then a repeat is good enough to contend for the top spot.
Bold Warrior...Should be interesting on the stretchout.
Turbo Compressor...Lightly-raced Pletcher 3YO could be a runner with this bunch.
Will's Wildcat.

Valuable Lady...All the way?
Frazzie...Has been turf sprinting recently and that experience could count.
My Man Nell...Has a Beyer fig edge - but going longer. Hmm.
Copious Notes.

Torchme...Decent debut vs MSW at Penn Nat. Maybe.
Caviar N Champagne...Drops from MSW defeat at MTH.
Downhill Joey...Another making the big drop.
Harbor Mist.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halves are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

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