Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Meet Total ... 88-362

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Don't forget to check out the Challenge page where we started the month with a mythical $1000 bankroll and attempt to increase that amount as the Saratoga season continues.


1-9. Winner in the 9th [$9.00]. Also, in the 1st a C-B-A finish for the exacta [$38.00/$2] and tri [$51.00].

Practically speaking we saw the chance for a good season as far as winners-on-top pass us by perhaps a week and a half or two weeks ago -- but, like a baseball team limping through September, we're now mathematically eliminated: Even if we won every race over the next three days it would still be pretty dismal. Just a rough, rough patch over the last 2-3 weeks. It happens - it just hasn't ever happened to us, like this.

14,719 attended. The 2:30pm twilight star brings a younger, more party-ready crowd. There was a nice buzz - and the fun continued into the evening at the new paddock bar and the neighboring post-race watering holes. The weather cooperated again - although humidity and temps remained high.


$500K guaranteed late P4.

Final Stretch music fest - downtown, along Broadway from 7-11pm.

FIRST RACE - Lena Spencer $70K
Rose Catherine...Has proven productive on turf. Comes out of two nice sprints at MTH - and brings in a bullet work.
Broken Dreams...Lightly-raced and gets tested for class today - but looks like she'll fit here.
Canadian Ballet...Won this race last year - but seemed to be in better form then. However, it is Linda Rice in a turf sprint...
Quebrada Shiner.
On dirt: Happy Week, Stormandaprayer, Extravaganze, Gemswick Park, War Kill, Broken Dreams.

Crea's Law...A repeat of the latest - or improvement - could take this.
Exley...Showed speed last time and wouldn't be a shock if he held on longer today.
D'Sauvage...Might rebound to prior form with removal of blinkers.
Cooks Forest.
Cooper River.

Brother Bird...Broke through with a win two starts back and immediately passed through the NW1 condition last time. Looks like he can blow through NW2 if able to repeat that latest performance.
Safe Trip...Had some trouble and might have been over-matched last time against the very talented Discreetly Mine.
Mr Fantasy...Has yet to miss the board in seven starts and has shown flashes of real talent.
Flying Pegasus.

Epicurus...The grass has been kind to speed - but it looks like there should be plenty of pace in here for this one to shoot at late.
Albany Road...Could be interesting on the cutback in distance off of the maiden-breaker.
Shimmering Forest...Just missed at this level last time and might be tough again if able to sneak away early.
Southern Saint.
On dirt: Tocco d'Oro, Lamar Valley, Southern Saint, Lion Under Oath.

Rock America...AE list. Could prove to be an astute claim. Going first-out for Rice today.
Baatesh...AE list. Just missed last time. Should be right with the pace and be in position to get the jump on 'em.
Ender's Universe...Grass try was good and could be even better today with the blinkers.
Souper Spectacular...Barn has been going well over the last few days and this one is probably better than he's shown so far. Might start to justify that $1mil purchase price on the grass.
Promovedor Glory.
On dirt: Loquacious, Bellhouse, Jaguar Paw, Souper Spectacular, Ender's Universe.

Economic Summit...Connections typically do well here with these 2YO sales purchases - although not so much this year. Salty group here - but this one did work in 10.2 before the auction buy.
Scotus...Some win-early breeding.
Astrology...Beaten at 8-5 in debut, wouldn't be a shock to see improvement today.

SEVENTH RACE - Addison Mallery $70K
My Princess Jess...Not what you would call a 'win-machine' over the past two seasons but looks like a good fit with this bunch and worked well in prep for this.
Fantasia...The way our meet's been going our jumping off the Sheppard/Augustin bandwagon means this one could be a lock to win!
CS Silk...In the hunt more often than not and has fired a couple of bullets in the morning at CD.
Solo Piano.
On dirt: McVictory, Be Fair, Solo Piano, Forest Trail.

Abilio...Will they let him run away and hide again? There are one or two that look capable of keeping pace - but you just never know. These types of puzzles are more about jockey strategy than horse talent - and there aren't any PPs for jockey strategy.
Pegasus Tommy D...If the speed does collapse this guy looks capable of picking up the pieces.
Bishop of Nola...Two wins at the meet and another with some early speed. Stepping up a little bit here though.
Midnight Billy.
On dirt: Saginaw, Eire's Run, Abilio, Come Undone, Jimmy Vegas, Duke of Naples.

NINTH RACE - Forego G1 $250K
Vineyard Haven...Almost half of this 4YOs lifetime starts have been on this track - and half of those were wins, including the very nice win at this trip last time.
Bribon...A hard-knocker capable of winning here with a top effort.
Here Comes Ben...7F is a little bit of a spaciality and this guy has it covered.
Big Drama.

TENTH RACE - Woodward G1 $750K
Quality Road...Beaten in the G1 Whitney Hcp here last time - but it's hard to see anyone in this field being as much competition as Blame or Musket Man.
Convocation...Gutted out a very tough win here earlier in the meet. The runnerup came back to run a decent second here on Monday.
Mythical Power...Probably needs to step it up a little to compete for the win spot - but has shown some flashes in the past to indicate that that's not totally out of the question.
Mine That Bird.

City Train...Trainer has been struggling at the meet so we use this one on top reluctantly - but seems to have a slight edge on a weak field.
Whateverittakes...Longtime maiden is typically in the hunt.
Writethatdown...First two were OK.
Runaway Jim.
Bourbon Bandit.
On dirt: Second and one, Whateverittakes, City Train, Raffinator, Fortitude, Runaway Jim, River in the Woods.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halves are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

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