Equidaily Racing Journal



Monday, October 4, 2010
by Seth Merrow

We took a shot at the new 14% takout P4 at Portland Meadows on their opening day.

Went 2-for-4 in the sequence - which is recapped below.

Winners in the R6-R9 sequence on Monday paid: $3.40, $43.80, $4.00, and $9.00.

The P4 paid: $705.60/$2



RESULTS: We ran WON-4-6.

Decatur Island was the winner and that 9/23 bullet work of 34.2 for the Hollendorfer runner actually tempted me to single this one - but if I had I probably would have also taken a stand with Wasserman in the 8th. So I would have been allowed to go deeper in the two legs I lost, and might have gotten lucky there - but Wasserman would have knocked us out anyway.

Smart As Jim...Stakes-placed -- albeit a minor stakes -- and ran well at this level earlier this year. The question mark is fitness off of the layoff.
Decatur Island...Hollendorfer trainee might be bringing a class-edge in from NoCal - and if that 9/23 bullet is to be believed this race might be over soon after the gate opens.
Cougar Guy...Another that might have a class-edge on these -- although only slightly.


RESULTS: We ran 3-5-6.

Kind of disappointing that Kindactachy, who we tabbed as "could be the one to catch", broke super-sharp but didn't maintain that position for long, allowing 20-1 Castle Pines the early lead. That longshot then proceeded to take them all the way around. Would have liked to have seen 7-1 Kindofcatchy try that - particularly after that nice break [pictured below - red circle].

PM, R7, 10/04/10

The winner would have been tough to come up with - even, as suggested above, if I had singled elsewhere and been allowed to go deeper in this race. Off since last April Castle Pines had been beaten by 38+++ lengths in his five previous starts - the "+++' signifying that one of those races ended in a DNF. Castle Pines started the 2009 season off of a similar layoff and was a fading fifth that day as the 5-2 choice in a $4K claimer [Kindacatchy, also coming off a 2009 layoff similar to the benchtime he had coming into Monday's race - ran second in that '09 event, after setting the early pace. Ugh.].

I guess folks might have hung their hat on Castle Pines' 2009 follow-up. In his second start back last year he dropped in for a $2.5K tag and won easily at 4-5. But the layoff, his history off of a similar layoff, and the dismal end to his late '09 - early '10 season made him an unlikely candidate for our ticket in any form.

Afleet Pete...Has been competitive this year against better.
Kindacatchy...In the exacta 50% of the time on this track. Could be the one to catch.
Brite Bobby...Class-dropper with a top jock in the saddle.

RACE 8 Inaugural Hcp $20K

RESULTS: We ran WON-2-3.

It looked like Wasserman's class-edge would prevail as he took the lead in the stretch and looked pretty good late. But the betting public had it right and even-money choice Carry On John wore Wasserman down and was a determined three-quarter length winner.

Carry On John...In good form and picks up Frazier to ride.
Wasserman...Graded-stakes winner might have lost a step as an 8YO - and was probably over-matched in the G3 Longacres Mile two back, but ran a good second last time and should find this bunch to his liking. A potential single for those who want to whittle down the ticket - or look to go deeper elsewhere.
Overtime Victory...Second in a stakes race here last spring. Has been going well in Canada since (other than the latest which looks like an aberration).


RESULTS: We ran 3-8- (5).

For one of ours - 16-1 firster Say Felina - it was "They're off! You're done!" She stumbled out of the gate and was never a contender. The winner, 7-2 Jenjor had been soundly beaten in her two career starts at Emerald Downs. But she took a little action in both starts and toted a bullet work into this. She didn't thrill me - but she was playable.

Say Felina...Sire's offspring have been first or second 21% of the time in debut efforts over the past year.
Fast As Jeru...Hmm, clearly talented enough to take this if able to duplicate first two -- but was distanced and fell last time, which was in December.
(Moonshine Mayhem)...Breeding shows a little bit of promise - although the works and the connections don't jump off of the page.


Race 6: 1 - 7 - 8

Race 7: 1 - 5 - 8

Race 8: 4 - 5 - 6

Race 9: (4) - 5 - 6

Use #4 Moonshine Mayhem in R9 as a substitute if there's a scratch in the sequence.

3x3x3x2 = 54 x $1 = $54

Good luck.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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