Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, May 2, 2008
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes
by Seth Merrow

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets

Churchill, Race 11, I Want Revenge.
Churchill, Race 11, exacta box, I Want Revenge/Regal Ransom/Friesan Fire/Musket Man/General Quarters.

Churchill: Kentucky Derby G1 $1mil

I Want Revenge...Seems to be coming into this the right way. Two dirts starts were very impressive. Working well at Churchill. Looks like all systems go.
Regal Ransom...There are perhaps three of four horses who have shown the ability to go to the front early. None are pure "need for the lead" types and none appear likely to rocket out to set a crazy pace. So, if one of these front-runners can set modest fractions it's possible they'll be tough to run down late. We'll go with this guy off of his improving efforts in Dubai. Worked well at CD recently.
Friesan Fire...Betting public made this one the favorite in Friday's early-bird betting so he won't sneak under anyone's radar. That possibility existed however because he's been on the bench since mid-March. But that nice string of wins at the Fair Grounds is grabbing attention. What we won't know until Saturday evening is whether this guy is truly an improved 3YO -- or perhaps just a FG horse-for-the-course.
Musket Man...Early-bird betting line on this one was 26-1, so he's liable to offer some nice value to our gimmick plays. Only one defeat on the scorecard and that was his first try around two turns -- and that education paid off as he followed up with wins in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby and the G2 Illinois Derby. Has yet to fire a triple-digit Beyer -- but looks like he might be sitting on a big race.
General Quarters...With his retired school teacher owner/trainer this one is clearly the feel-good story in the making. He looks capable -- but the Derby inexperience of that trainer is a concern.

Wager: $5 WP on I Want Revenge.
...$1 exacta box top five.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 triple key I Want Revenge over next four.
...$1 triple box top four.

Churchill: Churchill Downs G2 $250K

Kodiak Kowboy...Comes out of a solid win in the G1 Carter Hcp. Has run well here before.
The Roundhouse...Might finally be prepared to live up to the potential that seemed possible at the start of his career.
Sok Sok...Beat the top pick last time.

Wager: $5 WP on Kodiak Kowboy.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Churchill: Eight Belles G3 $100K

Auspicious...Lightly-raced. Should still have some upside. Might appreciate the return to this track.
Four Gifts...Barnmate of the top pick has some proven graded stakes experience.
Lady's Laughter...Improved in first 3YO start.
Just Jenda.

Wager: $5 WP on Auspicious.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Churchill: Distaff Turf Mile G2 $200K

Visit...She might be better than she's shown in her US starts so far.
Lemon Chiffon...So-Cal shipper should be heard from late.
Sugar Mint...Has looked good since arriving stateside.
Ballymore Lady.

Wager: $5 WP on Visit.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Churchill: Distaff G1 $300K

Informed Decision...Likes the trip. 4YO debut seemed to indicate she's held her form.
Game Face...Pletcher filly has yet to miss the board. Likes this track.
Secret Gypsy...Nice win this track and trip last November.
Bear Now.

Wager: $5 WP on Informed Decision.
...$4 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Churchill: Turf Classic G1 $500K

Court Vision...Should appreciate the return to turf.
Proudinsky...Capable on his best effort.
Einstein...Won this race last year.
Artiste Royal.

Wager: $5 WP on Court Vision.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Belmont: Nassau County G2 $200K

Saarlight... First three starts indicate she could be any kind.
Frolic's Dream...Regressed notably with move out of Wolfson barn. We'll get another look today under Tagg's care.

Wager: $5 W on Saarlight.
...$4 exacta box top two.

Belmont: Beaugay G3 $100K

My Princess Jess...Solid 3YO campaign. She might need one but could prove tough if able to return with added maturity.
Dyna's Lassie...Will be heard from in the lane.
Scolara...Mott filly is another that will be running late.
Carribean Sunset.
Sunshine for Life.

Wager: $5 WP on My Princess Jess.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.

Belmont: Fort Marcy G3 $100K

Dancing Forever...Question mark is the layoff -- but he's run well on this track in the past.
Tam Lin...Looks like the one to beat if able to recapture 2008 form -- but tossed in some clunkers in Dubai in the meantime.
Cosmonaut...Millionaire is capable if ready -- but has been off since summer.
operation Red Dawn.

Wager: $5WP on Dancing Forever.
...$4 exacta box top two.
...$1 tri key Dancing Forever over next three.

Pimlico: Tesio $75K

The Prince...Improved nicely in first two turn test.
Seal Team...Has looked OK at Philly -- but this bunch might be a little saltier.
Tone It Down...Seems to be getting the hang of it lately.
Rule of Motion.

Wager: $5 exacta key The Prince over next two.

Hollywood: Wilshire Hcp G3 $100K

Belmont Cat...Should stalk and pounce.
Bel Air Sizzle...I like the confidence shown coming right back -- but the dud against Cal-breds last week is a concern.
Diamond Diva...Has run well in all US starts -- but has been on the bench a long time.
Gorgeous Goose.

Wager: $5 WP on Belmont Cat.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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