Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Sunday, August 5, 2006
Meet Total ... 21-96

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5-10. Ah, the breakout day we've been waiting for. We've said it before -- if you have shown some consistency over time and have confidence in your handicapping skills, don't panic if you hit a brief bump in the road. Don't press. Just stick to the game-plan and wait it for it to come back around.

We were treading water through the first nine days of the meet -- although not any more so than the rest of the public handicappers out there. We had some decent winners and more than a handful of gimmicks using the selections -- but overall, particularly with winners-on-top it had been a bit of a struggle. Things came around on Saturday.

Five winners on top [$9.80, 7.20, 25.60, 4.50, 4.10] produced an eye-popping 156% ROI in that category. But the gimmicks were perhaps even juicier...

In the 4th our top two produced a reverse exacta [in the narrowest of photos!] for a $42.80/$2 payoff. In the 6th our top two produced a cold exacta [$24.80] and our third and fourth selections were flip-flopped underneath for the tri [$168.50] and the super [$507.00]. Moving on to the 7th, our top pick got home first at 11-1 followed by our fourth and third choices, producing a very nice exacta [$152.00] and tri [$1500.00]. You would have had to have played around just a little but the selections also completed exactas and tri's in the 5th and 8th. And the $2083.00 late P4 was comprised of three top picks and a third selection.

All-in-all it was a fun day. We hope you were onboard -- either here on this page, or watching as we went through the card Saturday morning on Capital OTB-TV.

A very solid crowd of 28,141 attended. The weather continues to hold. Warm and sunny throughout the day with the humidity taking a smidge of a break in comparison to the previous two or three days.


Free T-shirt with each paid admission while supplies last.

Like the stockbrokers say, past success is not an indicator of future performance. Another tough card will make it hard to duplicate the excellent results from Saturday. But we'll certainly try...

Inside Passage...Tossed in a little bit of a dud when stretching to two turns last time. We'll give him a pass on that and look for a rebound to the prior good form.
Sumwonlovesyou...Looks like the one to catch.
Lost Etiquette...Dangerous with return to dirt.
Maria's Kitty.

Sunday Holiday...Nobody in the field is jumping out at us so we'll go with the hot trainer.
Esther Got Even...Likewise Zito conditions this one and can have them ready to roll early.
Morakami...Attracted a decent price at auction.
Lucky Copy.

Russian Gypsy...Two nice starts under her belt -- and a strong string of works leading into this.
Chagall...Early promise last year before ending the season with a couple of disappointments. Wouldn't be a shock to see her run well off the layoff.
AP Dream...Turf-to-dirt. Cutting back from 1M.

Mr Zip...Improving Beyers in three starts topped by a big number win in latest. Might progress through this condition in first try.
Makin Me Famous...Beat top pick two back and then just missed in first try at this level.
Radio Freq...Back in against state-breds and likely to show some early foot.
Fernando Runs It.

Pletcher entry...Both halves have a little bit of breeding and some OK works. Pletcher pretty good with these debuting turfers.
Sherine...Wouldn't be surprised to see improvement in her second start.
Donk entry...Queen of Protocol had trouble in debut and could be tough if able to move forward off of that effort.
Desert Scents.

Jocasse...Both turf starts have been good. Inside post and early speed should make her dangerous here.
Miss Blarney Stone...A couple of good tries since moving stateside to face NY-breds.
Kats Golden Ways...Should be rolling late.
As Do I.

Ninth of July...Running well in Calder turf sprints -- now moves in against state-breds.
Duchess of Rokeby...Looks to be on the improve.
Too Much Zip...Been close a few times. Took to the turf OK in last. Bullet work for this.

EIGHTH RACE - Lemon Drop Kid
Past the Point...Going to need to step it up just a little bit but he's lightly-raced and should still have some upside potential.
Winstrella...That clunker in the Iowa Derby just looks out of whack. If he rebounds he'll be ultra-tough in here.
Loose Leaf...His best puts him right in the mix.

NINTH RACE - Fourstardave G2
Silver Tree...Going well now. Likes the trip. Likes the track. Mott trains. Adds up.
Brilliant...Looks like the one to beat off of the last two.
Host...Closed a ton last time and might be set for a big one.
Fishy Advice.

Elizabul...Toss the graded stakes try and it's been awhile since this guy hasn't been in the hunt.
No Parole...8YO has run three times this year -- two of those have been solid.
Falcon's Peak...Has some early foot. Adds blinkers. Signs say he'll be sent. Knock against is the 7-pound apprentice onboard.
Kenta Kun.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way [in other words, both halve are named]. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed [rather than the other half of the entry] in event of a scratch.

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