Equidaily Racing Journal



Breeders' Cup Edition
Saturday, October 27, 2007
...And Friday, October 26
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes
by Seth Merrow

The big day: Breeders' Cup and a couple of hors d oeuvres from other venues.

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets

The weather makes BC plays tenuous -- but it only comes once a year:

Monmouth, Race 4, WPS Phantom Income.
Monmouth, Race 5, Kodiak Kowboy.
Monmouth, Race 6, WPS Precious Kitten.
Monmouth, Race 11, Any Given Saturday.


Monmouth: BC F/M Sprint $1mil

Miss Macy Sue...Has won six of her last eight. Concern is that two of those were G3's and there is a question of class. But if she can get some decent position early from the rail post she should be able to stalk and pounce.
Jazzy...Lightly raced 5YO made her first dirt start last time and won a G2 at Belmont beating Cuaba and Pussycat Doll. Doll came back to win a small stake at Belmont last week. Improvement not out of the question in fourth start of 2007.
Dream Rush...3YO has done little wrong this season. Two knocks though: Hasn't run since Aug 4, and this is her first try against older.
Wild Gams.

Wager: $5 WP on Miss Macy Sue.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Juvie Turf $1mil

Strike the Deal...Proven Group-level performer in Europe. Just missed in a G1 last time. Caveat: Both Dark Angel and McCartney finished up the track in the recent 7F Dewhurst at Newmarket -- which does not flatter this one. However, Euro's can often be a cut below and still manage to get it done on this side of the pond.
Gio Ponti...Two starts, two wins, including a stake at Keeneland. Looks like the real deal.
Achill Island...Another dangerous Euro -- this one from the potent O'Brien barn. Dam has produced a couple stakes winners in Australia.

Wager: $5 WP on Strike the Deal.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Dirt Mile $1mil

Lewis Michael...Ran an OK fourth in the G1 Goodwood behind Tiago and Awesome Gem. Cuts back in distance and should have built up some fitness running over the synthetic tracks.
Gottcha Gold...Wired 'em in the G3 Salvator Mile Hcp over this track in June -- beating Lawyer Ron. Likes the track but the extra seventy yards in this "Mile" won't help.
Corinthian...Tossed in a couple clunkers recently -- but he's capable on best as evidence by G1 Met Mile win this summer.
Wanderin Boy.

Wager: $5 WP on Lewis Michael.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.


Aqueduct: Sport Page Hcp G3 $150K

Sir Greeley...Likes this track and could be ready to pop second off the layoff.
Chatain...When he's right he's been very, very good -- but off since August and only a couple of starts since last winter.
Premium Wine.

Wager: $5 W on Sir Greeley.
...$5 exacta Sir Greeley over Chatain.
...$2 exacta Sir Greeley over Premium Wine.

Keeneland: Fayette G3 $150K

Go Between...Looks best if able to transition to the Poly.
Stream Cat...Another that's primarily a turfer -- but he's shown some ability on this surface in the past.
Brass Hat...Beyer fig doesn't jump off the page but his Mass Cap win looked nice.
Dr Pleasure.

Wager: $5 WP on Go Between.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Juv Fillies G1 $2mil

Indian Blessing...Solid in both starts and working well.
Izarra...Just missed with a nice closing effort in G1 Oak Leaf.
Phantom Income...Looking for this gal to add some vlue to the gimmicks. Sold at a 2YO sale to connections that have done well with these types over the past few seasons. This one worked in 10.1 prior to that sale and then won her debut at Belmont to confirm her talent. Was perhaps ambitiously placed in next two (although she was declared a non-starter in the G2 Adirondack). Bounced back nicely though, running her best yet in a rich, restricted stake the the Meadowlands. Might indicate she's figured it out and she could be ready to roll from the cozy rail post.
Proud Spell.

Wager: $5 WP on Indian Blessing.
...$2 WPS on Phantom Income.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: Juvie G1 $2mil

Kodiak Kowboy...It's possible he was precocious and the rest of the class is catching up -- but we'll take a shot on Saturday and assume he might appreciate the two-turns and rebound to winning form. Experience counts and this guy already has won two graded races and was a decent second to Tale of Ekati last time.
Salute the Sarge...Battle-tested in 2YO SoCal stakes -- which often tend to be more competitive than their East Coast counterparts. Should benefit form the two-turn education he received last time, but he'll have to overcome the 12-post.
Tale of Ekati...Solid G2 win last time. But trainer Tagg went out of his way to complain about the fast work earlier this week. Will it affect him? We'll know more Saturday but you don't like to see any bumps in the road coming into a big race.
War Pass.

Wager: $5 WP on Kodiak Kowboy.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC F/M Turf G1 $2mil

Simply Perfect...Comes in off of a steady diet of G1 races in Europe. Close-up third behind the talented Darjina two back. Won a G1 in July.
Passage of Time...Another Euro-invader. Less than two lengths behind Mrs Lindsay last time and that one came back to win the EP Taylor at Woodbine last week.
Precious Kitten...Half-sib to Eclipse winner Kittne's Joy. This G1 winner is liable to get overlooked in the betting and could be dangerous if able to sneak away early.

Wager: $5 WP on Simply Perfect.
...$2 WPS on Precious Kitten.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Sprint G1 $2mil

Smokey Stover...Should have enough speed to get some decent position early. Proved Monmouth track is not an obstacle after shipping across the country and winning a stake here in early September.
Talent Search...Also took to the Monmouth surface in his only try here. Sneaky good second in G1 Vosburgh last time.
Midnight Lute...Ultra-impressive winning the G1 Forego at Saratoga on Spet 1. Off since but working well.
Benny the Bull.

Wager: $5 WP on Smokey Stover.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Mile G1 $2mil

Excellent Art...Won a G1 three back and followed-up with two placings behind the talented Ramonti. Has to be considered one of the top milers in Europe -- which makes him very dangerous here. Post position will be a huge obstacle to overcome however.
Trippi's Storm...Seldom runs a poor race and should be in prime form coming out of the nice G2 Kelso Hcp win.
Kip Deville...A couple solid efforts coming into this could have him ready to fire another good one.
After Market.

Wager: $5 WP on Excellent Art.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Distaff G1 $2mil

Ginger Punch...Her win in the G1 Go For Wand was her only two-turn try this year and it was arguably her best race. Return to two-turns might help her rebound to top form.
Unbridled Belle...She seems to have returned as an improved 4YO.
Lear's Princess...3YO is talented but will probably have to step it up slightly to get it done here. She's lightly raced however, which means there's probably still some upside.
Indian Vale.

Wager: $5 WP on Ginger Punch.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Turf G1 $3mil

Dylan Thomas...G1 Arc winner has done little wrong this year. His second-place finishes were behind the likes of good ones Authorized and Manduro. Otherwise he's chalking up W's. Should have an edge on this field -- only question is how he handles the Monmouth course.
English Channel...Really liked the gutsy rail move to win the G1 Turf Classic last time.
Red Rocks...Defending champ has not particularly impressed this year -- but he should be a contender on his best effort.
Better Talk Now.

Wager: $5 WP on Dylan Thomas.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Monmouth: BC Classic G1 $5mil

Any Given Saturday...It looks like he came back from a short late spring/early summer break as an improved animal. 3-for-3 since the time off and all looking better than any races run previously. Most impressive of the bunch was the G1 Haskell win over this track, beating Hard Spun and Curlin.
Street Sense...The race should set up well for him and the post should be just what Borel ordered.
Lawyer Ron...Likely to go out and set the pace with Hard Spun. Don't anticipate a wild duel -- it should be a legit pace though. But both of them have shown enough talent to indicate they should be around at the end off of a legit pace.
Hard Spun.

Wager: $5 WP on Any Given Saturday.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box to four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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