Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, April 7, 2007
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes
by Seth Merrow

A pretty good afternoon with seven winners on top in fourteen races. The highlight was 8-1 Super Freaky in the Providencia at Santa Anita. Plus we picked up enough gimmicks to make it a fun day.

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets

Can't really complain with a 56% ROI on the day (wagered: $22; collected $34.40), but there were a couple disappointments... Live Music at Keeneland was an across-the-board play for us at expected high odds -- and, sure enough, she went off at 19-1. She was absolutely live in the lane, and in fact took the lead briefly. So it has to be considered a disappointment that she ran fourth -- a neck out of third, two necks out of second. What was especially upsetting was the fact that the horse that ran third was also 19-1 -- and paid a solid $13.60 to show! We could have expected similar.

We were also high on Hucking Hot in the Ashland -- but she was a late scratch. And May Night just got going too late in the nightcap at Keeneland. A good day that could have been much better with a small amount of racing luck.

Tampa, Race 4, exacta box, Equal Opportunity/Grato Recuerdo... Ran 2-9.
Tampa, Race 8, Lookinforthesecret... 2nd at 3-1 (xxx, 5.60, 3.60).
Tampa, Race 9, Soldier's Dancer... WON (3.20, 2.80, 2.20).
Tampa, Race 11, exacta box, Quite a Bride/Prop Me Up... WON ($11.40/$2).
Keeneland, Race 5, WPS Live Music... 4th at 19-1
Keeneland, Race 9, Hucking Hot... Scratched.
Keeneland, Race 10, May Night... 2nd at 3-2 (xxx, 3.00, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 7, Super Freaky... WON (19.80, 9.60, 6.60).

Aqueduct: Pleasant Colony $75K

Malibu Moonshine/entry 2-5*
Monopoly Pricing 5-2
Successful Affair/entry 2-5*

Change Course scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Contessa entry.
Collected $12.25 on the WP (2.80, 2.10).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $5.50 on the ex box.
...$2 tri key Contessa entry over next three.
Ran 1e-2-3e-5.

Contessa entry... Successful Affair has been super over the inner this winter -- but won a 2M race over the main in November. Malibu Moonshine a solid stakes performer that should find this group to his liking.
Monopoly Pricing...Distance is a question mark -- but certainly fits with these on class.
Change Course...Has some marathon experience under his belt -- on grass. But he's coming off two OK dirt tries.
Delta Sea.

Aqueduct: Bay Shore G3 $150K

Bill Place 5-2
Hobbitontherocks 13-1
Les Grand Trois 3-5*

In the Woods scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Frankel entry.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-6.
...$2 tri key Frankel entry over next three.
Ran 3/1-4-6.

Frankel entry... Both Les Grands Trois and In the Woods are lightly raced and should still have some upside.
Wollaston Bay...Look for a rebound with cut back to sprint.
Bill Place...Hasn't missed an exacta in six starts.
Pass the Punch.

Aqueduct: Wood Memorial G1 $750K

Nobiz Like Shobiz 3-5*
Sightseeing 18-1
Any Given Saturday 3-2

Wager: $5 WP on Nobiz Like Shobiz.
Collected $15.00 on the WP (3.40, 2.60).
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 tri key Nobiz Like Shobiz over next three.
Collected $24.20 on the tri key ($48.40/$2).
...$1 tri key Any Given Saturday over other three.
Ran 3/1-2-4.

Nobiz Like Shobiz...Puts on the blinkers today after narrow miss in G2 Fountain of Youth.
Any Given Saturday...The one to beat as Pletcher comes back in "only" three weeks. But keep in mind that they're still chasing graded money.
Sightseeing...Still has to prove his stakes-quality class.
Summer Doldrums.

Aqueduct: Carter Hcp G1 $300K

Silver Wagon 2-1
Diabolical 6-1
Ah Day 8-1

Wager: $5 WP on Keyed Entry.
Ran 5th at 2-1*.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-5.
...$1 tri key Keyed Entry over next three.
Ran 5/1-3-4.

Keyed Entry...Comeback effort was very impressive and he's fired a couple bullets since.
Latent Heat...Hit career top form winning last two at Santa Anita.
Silver Wagon...Clearly dangerous -- and won G3 Sport Page over this track at this trip last autumn.
Ah Day.

Aqueduct: Excelsior BC Hcp G3 $200K

Magna Graduate 2-1
Naughty New Yorker 22-1
Accountforthegold 8-1

Wager: $5 WP on Magna Graduate.
Collected $27.25 on the WP (6.70, 4.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$2 tri key Magna Graduate over next three.
Ran 1/4-5-6.

Magna Graduate...Tossed a clunker in the G1 Donn -- but had trouble at the start. Bookended that effort with two that were good enough to tab him here.
Corinthian...Seems to be an improved 4YO and looks like the one to beat.
Happy Hunting...Two inside horses should provide some early foot and this one might be able to stalk and get a good run late.
Evening Attire.

Keeneland: Lafayette $100K

Carnacks Choice 10-1
Call Me Clash 17-1
Ollie Jet 47-1

Wager: $5 WP on Out of Gwedda.
Ran 6th at 7-5*.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 6-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 4-6-7-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 4-6-7-8.

Out of Gwedda...Has shown plenty of promise and might prefer this surface to Gulfstream.
Silver Express...Could be interesting on the cutback.
Izzie's Halo...Has already put in some nice stakes tries and the bullet on 4/1 looks good.
Barkley Sound.

Keeneland: Ashland G1 $500K

Wager: $5 WP on Hucking Hot.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-4-5.

Hucking Hot...Turf stakes winner showed a good closing kick on the Hollywood synthetic surface.
Octave...We liked her in the 2007 debut. That was a good effort and should set her up to move forward.
Mistical Plan...Nice wire job in New Orleans -- but that tactic probably won't work on this track. And this is her second cross-country trip in a month.
High Again.

Hawthorne: Illinois Derby G2 $500K

Cowtown Cat 7-2
Reporting for Duty 24-1
Bold Start 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on Cobalt Blue.
Ran 7th at 1-1*.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.

Cobalt Blue...Has come back as an improved 3YO and has the early speed to be right on the pace, which is what gets it done in this race.
Cowtown Cat...The one to beat coming out of a nice win in the G3 Gotham.
Bold Start...Good second in the G2 Hutcheson was perhaps his best yet.
Catman Running.

Oaklawn: Apple Blossom Hcp G1 $500K

Ermine 3-1
Take D'Tour 5-1
Round Pond 6-5*

Wager: $5 WP on Ermine.
Collected $30.00 on the WP (8.00, 4.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $20.10 on the ex box ($40.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $64.80 on the tri box ($129.60/$2).

Ermine...Likes this track and comes in off of a couple of solid stakes efforts at Santa Anita.
Round Pond...Clearly the one to beat. Better than last and really likes this track.
India...Pletcher trainee won the prep for this.
Take D'Tour.

Oaklawn: Oaklawn Hcp G2 $500K

Lawyer Ron 1-2*
Brother Bobby 39-1
Boboman 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Lawyer Ron.
Collected $15.50 on the WP (3.00, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 tri key Lawyer Ron over next three.
Ran 1/3-5-6.
...$1 tri key McCann's Mojave over other three.
Ran 5/1-3-6.

Lawyer Ron...Undefeated on this track and come in off of a nice win in 2007 debut at Gulfstream.
McCann's Mojave...OK try in the G1 SA Hcp although that trip might have been a little bit beyond his scope.
Boboman...Turfer was a good third in his dirt debut.

Santa Anita: Potrero Grande BC Hcp G2 $200K

Smokey Stover 3-5*
Greg's Gold 2-1
Sailor's Sunset 4-1

Bordonaro scratched.

Wager: $5 quinella top two.

Smokey Stover...Looks to be in top form now.
Bordonaro...Behind the top pick last time and frankly not thrilled with the jock switch -- but this guy can roll.

Santa Anita: SA Derby G1 $750K

Tiago 29-1
King of the Roxy 7-2
Sam P 2-1*

Wager: $5 WP on King of the Roxy.
Collected $16.00 on the WP (xxx, 6.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-10.

King of the Roxy...Flopped in lone two turn try -- but might be an improved 4YO. Looked good winning G2 Hutcheson.
Sam P...Solid effort in the G2 prep for this when he ran second to the talented Great Hunter. Dangerous.
Liquidity...Expect a rebound to good form with return to SoCal.
Level Red.

Santa Anita: Providencia G3 $100K

Super Freaky 8-1
Passified 10-1
Gotta Have Her 7-1

Wager: $5 WP on Super Freaky.
Collected $73.50 on the WP (19.80, 9.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-10.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $67.80 on the ex box ($135.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-7-10.

Super Freaky...Victory in 6.5F stakes last time was best yet and we expect a good effort stretching to a mile.
Princess Iris...Euro-invader should go better in her second US start.
Silver Swallow...Tries grass but was second to the super-talented Rags to Riches in the G1 SA Oaks.

Santa Anita: Arcadia Hcp G2 $150K

Icy Atlantic 5-1
El Roblar 8-1
Willow O Wisp 9-2
Wager: $5 WP on Hendrix.
Ran 9th (DNF) at 6-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 7-9.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-6-7-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-6-7-9.

Hendrix...Like that 4/1 work and expect better than latest with return to Santa Anita.
Milk It Mick...Comebacker was a little bit of a flop but first few in this country last year indicate this one has talent.
Icy Atlantic...Has gone well in two races on this track.
Porto Santo.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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