Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, July 8, 2006
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes
by Seth Merrow

We struggled the past few weeks with scenarios of a decent amount of winners-on-top, but not too much value. This week it's just the opposite, only one winner on top in nine races [Monmouth, $5.80] but a handful of nice scores otherwise that moved us into positive territory.

The capper for the afternoon was clearly the listed Redondo Beach at Hollywood, where our top two flip-flopped at decent odds for a $57.60/$2 reverse exacta -- while our fourth selection completed the generous $543.80/$2 tri.

WAGERED: $265.00
COLLECTED: $496.40

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets

A slight profit on the afternoon with the Best Bets. A $2 win on each would have cost $16.00 and would have returned $17.80 for an 11% ROI.

Belmont, Race 9, Capote's Crown... 7th at 8-5.
Monmouth, Race 7, Wild Maple... WON [6.60, 4.40, 3.40].
Monmouth, Race 8, Calabria Bella... 2nd at 3-5 [xxx, 2.20, 2.10].
Churchill, Race 9, Air Kaper... 10th at 4-1.
Churchill, Race 11, Hey Gorgeous... 3rd at 1-1 [xxx, xxx, 2.10].
Colonial, Race 7, Singing Laur... WON [2.80, 2.10, 2.10].
Delaware, Race 6, Mabou... 4th at 5-1.
Hollywood, Race 7, Holdthehelm... WON [8.40, 3.80, 3.40].


Our Head-to-Head feature pits Coast-to-Coast's Seth Merrow against DRF's Weekend Warrior, Mike Watchmaker. Whenever the two columns make selections in the same race we'll tally the results for each.

This week's matchup races Seth Merrow/Equidaily.com's Coast-to-coast Mike Watchmaker/DRF's Weekend Warrior
Belmont: Prioress 7th at 8-5*/Capote's Crown 6th at 5-1/Win McCool
Hollywood: Redondo Beach 2nd at 4-1/Dream's 5th at 5-2*/Toupie
Monmouth: United Nations 2nd at 3-1/Cacique 3rd at 9-5*/Relaxed Gesture
This Week 3-0-2-0 3-0-0-1
YTD/win mutuel 63-16-10-8, $103.70 63-7-9-12, $48.30
(Head-to-Head results above are only for those races which were common to both columns. Weekend Warrior might have tabbed other races not reflected in the results above.)

Belmont: Prioress G1 $250K

Wildcat Bettie B 5-1
Wild Gams 18-1
Livermore Valley 21-1

Wager: $5 WP on Capote's Crown.
Ran 7th at 8-5*.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-6-7-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-6-7-8.

Capote's Crown...Toss the two Gulfstream races and this gal is on a nice, improving pattern.
Livermore Valley...Also seems to be getting better with each race.
Win McCool...Looked good beating older in an alw race last time.

Monmouth: Mr Prpospector $65K

High Blitz 9-5*
Wild Jam 9-2
Razor 7-2

Weigelia scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Weigelia.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5.

Weigelia...Turf-to-dirt and could be set for a big one in third start of 2006.
High Blitz...Ran a lifetime best Beyer winning a similar stake here last time.
Razor...Might have needed last.
Primary Suspect.

Monmouth: United Nations G1 $750K

English Channel 2-1
Cacique 3-1
Relaxed Gesture 9-5*

Wager: $5 WP on Cacique.
Collected $10.50 on the WP [xxx, 4.20].
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $26.20 on the ex box [$26.20/$2].
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $13.20 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $28.80 on the tri box [$57.60/$2].

Cacique...Broke through with a US stakes win in contentious G1 Manhattan last time. Went right to the front that day but should be able to revert to previous style today with plenty of speed in here.
English Channel...Just-miss fourth in that Manhattan photo finish. Will be there again this afternoon.
Better Talk Now...Won this race last year and looked good taking a G2 at Pimlico in latest.
Relaxed Gesture.

Churchill: Debutante G3 $100K

Richwoman 8-5
Chagall 1-1*
Lenaro 5-1

Seaside Affair scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Chagall.
Collected $6.00 on the WP [xxx, 2.40].
...$4 exacta box top two.
Collected $22.40 on the ex box [$11.20/$2].
...$1 tri key Chagall over next three.
Ran 2/1-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5.

Chagall...Purchased for $825K at a 2YO sale in February and validated that price with maiden win.
Richwoman...Thought enough of her after maiden score at Keeneland to ship her to SoCal -- where she won a stake.
Seaside Affair...Second to top pick in first start.
Come Together.

Churchill: Bashford Manor G3 $150K

Circular Quay 6-5*
Shermanesque 8-1
Run Alex Run 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Circular Quay.
Collected $18.50 on the WP [4.40, 3.00].
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-6.

Circular Quay...Connections can sweep the Churchill stakes with another precocious youngster that looked good winning debut.
Pegasus Wind...Well-bred firster debuts in a stake. Working well. Trainer Lukas only 8% at the meet however.
Chace City...2-2, including a rich stake at Woodbine. Beyers look a little light though.
Run Alex Run.

Colonial: Da Hoss $60K

Bestowed 2-1*
Touched by Madness 5-2
Legal Control 15-1

Battle Chant scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Battle Chant.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-4-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-4-7.

Battle Chant...Looks set for a top effort.
Touched By Madness...Should fit with this group.
Confucius Say...Interesting angle on the stretchout off of two dirt sprints.
Tune of the Spirit.

Hollywood: Swaps BC G2 $350K

Arson Squad 2-1
Point Determined 1-1*
AP Warrior 8-5

Wager: $10 exacta Point Determined over AP Warrior.
Ran 2/3.

Point Determined...Nipped AP Warrior in a barn-burner last time. Gets an extra half-furlong today.
AP Warrior...Looked to have a good set-up in last and just got caught in the photo.

Hollywood: Redondo Beach $65K

Singalong 5-1
Dream's 4-1
Midwife 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Dream's.
Collected $12.50 on the WP [xxx, 5.00].
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $57.60 on the ex box [$57.60/$2].
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $28.80 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $271.90 on the tri box [$543.80/$2].

Dream's...Might be ready to recapture good form shown last year.
Singalong...Won three of last four and last was a win over this track.
Carini...Could be very dangerous with PVal back onboard.

Hollywood: Gold Cup G1 $750K

Lava Man 3-5*
Ace Blue 24-1
Super Frolic 6-1

Wager: $5 exacta Magnum over Lava Man.
Ran 4/1.

Magnum...In good form now and his best might be enough to beat Lava Man. PVal might make the difference.
Lava Man...Hard to fault in his present form. Top pick only getting a slight nod.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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