Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, October 15, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

We were chasing our tail through most of the Festival of the Sun program at Calder. Rainy weather there knocked the Calder Derby and Oaks off of the turf -- and our wagering menu. It also made for a less than 'fast' track and that might have affected some of the results. Whatever the reason we struggled a little down there -- except for the very nice wagering score in the Criterium. That was enough to move us into contention for a good afternoon. And while we did manage to cash a little bit here and there elsewhere on our wagering card, ultimately we finished up just a winning bet or two away from profitability.

Two winners on top in ten races -- two races were off our radar after being switched from turf to dirt -- (Calder, $9.40; Hawthorne, $4.20).

WAGERED: $407.00
COLLECTED: $359.40

Turf wagers are turf only


Our Head-to-Head feature pits Coast-to-Coast's Seth Merrow against DRF's Weekend Warrior, Mike Watchmaker. Whenever the two columns make selections in the same race we'll tally the results for each.


Both Coast-to-coast and Weekend Warrior picked up a winner this week -- albeit the same horse. In fact we had identical selections in two of the three races this week and we both probably had the best horse in the QE II at Keeneland. That one saved ground under Gary Stevens but had to squeeze along the rail in the lane and perhaps lost a split-second of momentum trying to negotiate that -- and that was enough to cost her the win in a very close three-horse photo finish.

This week's matchup races Seth Merrow/Equidaily.com's Coast-to-coast Mike Watchmaker/DRF's Weekend Warrior
Calder: My Dear Girl 4th at 5-2 7th at 3-1
Calder: In Reality WON ($9.40, 3.80, 3.00) WON ($9.40, 3.80, 3.00)
Keeneland: QE II 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 3.20) 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 3.20)
This Week 3-1-0-1 3-1-0-1
YTD (from 9/10/05)/win mutuel 17-2-1-5, $25.00 17-2-1-2, $15.30
(Head-to-Head results above are only for those races which were common to both columns. Weekend Warrior might have tabbed other races not reflected in the results above.)

Best Bets

A couple of winners and a near-miss (Gorella nipped in a photo) all adds up to a decent 36% ROI this week.

Calder, Race 5, Reason to Rejoice... 10th at 7-2
Calder, Race 10, Mystery Girl... 4th at 5-2.
Calder, Race 11, Blazing Rate... WON (9.40, 3.80, 3.00).
Keeneland, Race 9, Gorella... 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 3.20).
Hawthorne, Race 9, Isla Cozzene... WON (4.20, 3.00, 2.20).

Calder: Shocker T Hcp $100

Prospective Saint 1-1
Tigi 4-1
India Halo 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on India Halo.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $9.50 on the ex box ($19.00/$2).
...$1 tri key India Halo over next three.
Ran 3/1-2-5.

India Halo...Race has plenty of speed -- if one of those slips away early they might be tough to catch, but it looks like a fight is in the works on the front-end. This gal has shown the ability to sit just off the early pace and get first jump. Bailey onboard today should help work out that strategy. Been facing better in Delaware stakes most recently.
Tigi...Another that might benefit from the likely pace scenario.
Prospective Saint...Looks like the most promising of the "speeds" to hang on. Been going well in sprint stakes, now stretches.
American Miss.

Calder: JJs Dream $100K

Lake Alice 9-2
No Hear Say 23-1
Zooming By 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Reason to Rejoice.
Ran 10th at 7-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 9-10.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-6-9-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-6-9-10.

Reason to Rejoice...Showed solid improvement start #1 to start #2. A couple of next-out winners finished behind her in that maiden-breaker last time.
A Sea Trippi...Already has some good stakes experience under her belt.
Zooming By...Improving Beyers. Adds blinkers. Went well in stakes try in first race over this surface.
Bond Queen.

Calder: Calder Oaks $200K

Tiger Belle 32-1
My Typhoon 4-5
Fast Lisa 7-1

Conveyor's Angel scratched.

No wagers -- moved to main track.
Wager: $5 WP on My Typhoon.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

My Typhoon...Mott/Bailey filly was making/pressing some tough fractions in last two -- both graded stakes on NYRA circuit. Should enjoy a softer trip today.
Aclassysassylassy...Solid 2YO season last year. Must have had some problems as she's only raced twice this year. But comeback effort last time was very nice.
Conveyor's Angel...Competitive in Calif stakes.
Ragtime Hope.

Calder: Criterium $100K

Gin Rummy King 8-1
Forest Danz 1-1
Lord of the Flame 25-1

Wager: $5 WP on Forest Danz.
Collected $7.50 on the WP (xxx, 3.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $29.70 on the ex box ($59.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $226.30 on the tri box ($452.60/$2).

Forest Danz...Was last effort just ;freakish' over the sealed track? We'll know more today but also showed talent over a dry track in maiden effort.
Tizzys No Saint...Fourth to three good ones two back in G1 Hopeful. Cuts back to sprint after decent third in two turn stake last out.
Lord of the Flame...Closed like a freight train to win first try. Bullet work in prep for this.
Gin Rummy King.

Calder: Calder Derby G3 $200K

Dazzling Dr Cevin2-1
Dream On Dream On 7-2
Talented Prince 5-2

Grand Reserve, Tadreeb scratched.

No wagers -- moved to main track.
Wager: $5 WP on Grand Reserve.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Grand Reserve...Brought along quickly by trainer Mott and has responded. Won stakes debut last time at Belmont despite being shuffled back at the break and surviving a ding-dong stretch duel.
Dream On Dream On...Looks like the one to catch.
Scalator...Seems to be an improving 3YO and should appreciate the added distance.

Calder: Florida Stallion My Dear Girl $400K

Consider Thesource 52-1
Stolen Prayer 10-1
Siren Cove 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Mystery Girl.
Ran 4th at 5-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-9.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-4-7-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-4-7-9.

Mystery Girl...Solid career so far in SoCal -- and that includes a second-place behind Wild Fit in G1 Del Mar Deb. Wild Fit is likely one of the top two or three in the division so we have to respect our pick in against this bunch.
Running Lass...Has won two division of Florida Stallion series already -- and brings in a 3-race win-streak. The one to beat.
Siren Cove...Looks to be improving and might appreciate the stretchout.
Mia's Reflection.

Calder: Florida Stallion In Reality $400K

Blazing Rate 7-2
In Summation 1-1
Lucky Chief 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Blazing Rate.
Collected $33.00 on the WP (9.40, 3.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $23.60 on the ex box ($23.60/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $11.80 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-8-9.

Blazing Rate...Won debut. Went in stake next and finished second to In Summation. Followed-up with stakes win around two turns. Gets slightest of nods on already displayed talent going a route.
In Summation...Clearly the one to beat. Comes in with an unblemished 5-5 record. Only question mark is the two turns. We'll know today.
Cab...Asmussen/Bailey. Two good sprints at Saratoga followed by a decent third in Ky Cup Juvie. Might go better in second try around two turns.
Lil Diazo.

Calder: Spend A Buck Hcp G3 $100K

Supervisor 11-1
BB Best 4-5
Apalachian Thunder 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Whos Crying Now.
Ran 4th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-4-5-6.
...$1 tri key Whos Crying Now over next three.
Ran 4/2-5-6.

Whos Crying Now...Seemed to tail off early this summer. Went to the bench and comeback effort seems to signal he appreciated the break and has come back running.
Chino Charlie...Been running in optional claimers so might give some class-edge to these -- but seems in very good form right now.
Lawbook...Second to top pick by a nose last time.
BB Best.

Laurel: Md Million Classic $250K

Play Bingo 5-1
Aggadan 9-5
Five Steps 7-1

Presidentialaffair ran 4th to complete the $177.60/$2 super.

Wager: $5 WP on Presidentialaffair.
Ran 4th at 1-1.
...$5 exacta Presidentialaffair over Aggadan.
Ran 4/2.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 tri key Presidentialaffair over next three.
Ran 4/1-2-3.

Presidentialaffair...Looks like a repeat of 2004 version of this race with this guy probably being able to set all the pace in a short field.
Aggadan...Ran second to top pick here last year and looks to complete the exacta again.
Play Bingo...Capable of being heard from on best.
Five Steps.

Keeneland: QEII Cup G1 $500K

Sweet Talker 18-1
Karen's Caper 11-1
Gorella 2-1

Wager: $5 WP on Gorella.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-6.

Gorella...Has been facing good ones in Group races in Europe -- but attention-catcher is the second-place finish last time against Starcraft in a G1. Starcraft is being talked about as the top miler in Europe and this gal was taking on the boys that day. Expect a good try in US debut.
Luas Line...Solid -- and relatively easy -- win in G1 Belmont stake last time. Margin of victory might have been more but she ran into a flock of geese in the stretch. John Velazquez in to ride her again.
Naissance Royale...Another Euro-import that has a good stakes win on this side of the pond.
Karen's Caper.

Hawthorne: Hawthorne Oaks $150K

Isla Cozzene 1-1
You Dancing Devil 9-1
Baena 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Isla Cozze.
Collected $18.00 on the WP (4.20, 3.00).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-5-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-5-6-7.

Isla Cozzene...Looks like her best races have seen her close late and there should be some pace to shoot at in here.
Radiant Avie...This looks like the gal they'll have to catch.
Lucrezia...Took the lad last time -- but if she does that again a duel is likely. Has shown the ability to stalk however.
Dearest Queen.

Santa Anita: Oak Tree Derby G2 $150K

Aragorn 7-2
Eastern Sand 5-1
Brecon Beacon 19-1

Willow O Wisp scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Willow O Wisp.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-4-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-4-7.

Willow O Wisp...Moved into barn of Vladimir Cerin and has shown marked improvement as a 3YO. Brings a 3-race, graded stakes win-streak into this.
Osidy...Has finished behind top pick last two -- but beat that one three back.
Eastern Sand...Could be on the improve and might appreciate return to Santa Anita.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed in event of a scratch.
Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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