Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, October 8, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

Pl;agued by similar results as last Saturday -- in three of this week's wagering events we had three of the top four finishers, but couldn't even manage to cash our exacta box. Doh!

One winner on top in seven races (Belmont, $3.50). We also had the cold exacta in that race, the Champagne ($7.70/$2). Our best play of the day was the Frizette, where, although we missed tabbing the winner, we managed a nice exacta and tri box. We struggled mightily at Keeneland but so, it appears, did most everyone else. The winner of the Breeders' Futurity was a 36-1 outsider. Of course, with the luxury of 20-20 hindsight we can actually lable this guy as quite playable. In his last Dawn of War was the 8-5 favorite in the $200K Cradle at River Downs. He ran second that day to Laity. On Saturday Laity went off as the 3-1 favorite. Sure Dawn of War was beaten by eleven lengths in the Cradle -- but with a 5-2-3-0 lifetime record and live connections, the wild disparity in odds between these two horses made the eventual winner one to take notice of.

Similarly perhaps the winner of the next race, the Turf Mile was also playable -- but less so in light of the talent of the picks we did use. Winner Host was going out for Todd Pletcher and had never missed the board in thirteen starts. That was enough to make the 10-1 price quite tempting. But coming off of an eight month layoff it was hard to lena towards Host over horses that seemed to be in better racing form. And the three top choices all looked formidable. In fact during the NBC broadcast Bob Neumeier commenting on his NTRA P4 play and said if he got through the first three legs unscatched he would enter the last leg with the utmost confidence because he was using Three Valleys, Alinghi and Ad Valorem. We couldn't have agreed more -- so it was a shocker when all three failed to hit the board.

In Socal we were nosed out of what would have been a nice little exacta in the Ancient Title. And in the Oak Tree BC Mile we got one of those rides that happens occasionally and you can't really complain about. Garrett Gomez had our top pick, 2-1 We All Love Aleyna, in good position most of the trip. He was saving ground on the rail and looked to be in a good, pouncing spot as they turned for home, but instead of things opening up as they usually do so the rail horse can skim along the fence -- or tip out and find a good spot, nothing opened up at all. The rail didn't open and there was a wall of four horse across the track right in front of ours. It happens.

WAGERED: $322.00
COLLECTED: $176.50

Turf wagers are turf only


Our new Head-to-Head feature pits Coast-to-Coast's Seth Merrow against DRF's Weekend Warrior, Mike Watchmaker. Whenever the two columns make selections in the same race we'll tally the results for each.


This week's matchup races Seth Merrow/Equidaily.com's Coast-to-coast Mike Watchmaker/DRF's Weekend Warrior
Keeneland: Breeders' Futurity 3rd at 7-2 12th at 7-1
Keeneland: Turf Mile 5th at 2-1 6th at 3-1
Santa Anita: Oak Tree BC Mile 4th at 2-1 3rd at 7-2
This Week 3-0-0-1 3-0-0-1
YTD (from 9/10/05)/win mutuel 14-1-1-4, $15.60 14-1-1-1, $5.90
(Head-to-Head results above are only for those races which were common to both columns. Weekend Warrior might have tabbed other races not reflected in the results above.)

Best Bets

Belmont, Race 8, Catch My Fancy... 5th at 4-1.
Keeneland, Race 4, Cintarosa... 3rd at 7-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Keeneland, Race 8, Stream Cat... 3rd at 7-2 (xxx, xxx, 4.20).
Santa Anita, Race 7, We All Love Aleyna... 4th at 2-1

Belmont: Frizette G1 $500K

Adieu 8-5
Along the Sea 12-1
Keeneland Kat 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on Catch My Fancy.
Ran 5th at 4-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $26.10 on the ex box ($52.50/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $120.50 on the tri box ($241.00/$2).

Catch My Fancy...Stretches out to one-turn mile after two convincing sprint wins in SoCal.
Adieu...The bounce-back win in the G2 Spinaway makes the flop in the Adirondack look like a fluke. The one to beat.
Keeneland Kat...Like top pick has put in two good sprint efforts leading into this.
Along the Sea.

Belmont: Champagne G1 $500K

First Samurai 3-5
Henny Hughes 2-1
Superfly 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on First Samurai.
Collected $14.50 on the WP ($3.50, 2.30).
...$3 exacta box top two.
Collected $11.55 on the ex box ($7.70/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $3.85 on the ex box.
...$1 tri key First Samurai over next three.
Ran 1/2-5-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-6.

First Samurai...Has been convincing in three wins so far -- including the G1 Hopeful last time. Best until beaten.
Henny Hughes...This guy was sold for a rumored $4 mil earlier this year. That makes the second to the top pick in the Hopeful a concern -- but never count one out on one race alone.
Deputy Glitters...Huge debut win -- but it was against much lesser. Question marks, but the effort was too good to ignore.
Too Much Bling.

Keeneland: Phoenix BC G3 $250K

Elusive Jazz 7-1
Wild Tale 21-1
Premium Saltine 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on Level Playingfield.
Ran 4th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.

Level Playingfield...If all go there should be plenty of early speed. This guy is capable of a good closing effort -- but can't be as far back as last time.
Fifteen Rounds...Should be able to sit just off the early pace and get first run. Still needs to prove talent outside of chicago however.
Premium Saltine...Another with big early foot that will have to prove ability away from usual circuit.
Elusive Jazz.

Keeneland: Breeders' Futurity G1 $500K

Dawn of War 36-1
Catcominatcha 21-1
Stream Cat 7-2

Menacing scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Stream Cat.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-6-12.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-6-12.

Stream Cat...Beyers figs might be a touch light -- but he's on the improve and another step forward puts him in the thick of things here.
High Cotton...Stretching out off of two nice, improving sprint efforts.
Cool Creek...Has been running well in UK -- albeit sprinting on grass. Could prove tough in first US try.

Keeneland: Turf Mile G1 $600K

Host 10-1
Vanderlin 27-1
Gulch 28-1

Wager: $5 WP on Three Valleys.
Ran 5th at 2-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 5-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 5-6-8-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 5-6-8-9.

Three Valleys...Impressed in both 2005 tries at Del Mar. Only other US start was a decent third behind Leroidesanimaux.
Alinghi...Aussie import looked good winning US debut at Saratoga. She's beaten the boys Down Under.
Ad Valorem....Euro-import has been facing some good ones across the pond. Last race was first against older -- but expect him to be competitive in here.
Durban Thunder.

Santa Anita/Oak Tree: Ancient Title BC G1 $250K

Captain Squire 2-1
Zanzibar 19-1
Indian Country 15-1

Wager: $5 WP on McCann's Mohave.
Ran 5th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.

McCann's Mohave...Tailed off earlier this year. Came back from layoff to run well in two Hollywood tries. Clunked last time at Del Mar. Working well. Shaky pick in a contentious race.
Indian Country...Came back from layoff with two improving efforts. Might rate as top pick except for low profile trainer.
Captain Squire...Has plenty of early foot and a repeat of last at Del Mar could take this -- but concern is, can he repeat in second start off a long layoff?

Santa Anita/Oak Tree: Oak Tree BC Mile G2 $250K

Singletary 2-1
Designed for Luck 8-1
Buckland Manor 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on We All Love Aleyna.
Ran 4th at 2-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.
...$1 tri key We All Love Aleyna over next three.
Ran 4/1-3-6.
...$1 tri key Singletary over next three.
Ran 1/3-4-6.

We All Love Aleyna...Seems to have really come into her own since returning as a 4YO.
Singletary...BC Mile hero used a close-up third in this race to springboard into that big BC win last year. Expect a good try again today.
Buckland Manor...Likes the track and the trip. Layoff is a concern but working well.
King of Happiness.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed in event of a scratch.
Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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