Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, September 24, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

It was a fun afternoon with plenty off action and some nice results.

First and foremost the winner-on-top category proved to be lucrative with five of our tops picks winning in fourteen races (Belmont, $15.60; Monmouth, $9.80; Calder, $10.40, 5.60; Kentucky Downs, $6.30). That's good for a juicy 70% ROI in that category. It also made for a nice rebound in our Best Bets plays this week (see below).

We eeked out a very small profit overall -- but with all the action we'll settle for that. There were, of course, some disappointments that -- had things gone a little bit differently -- would have made for a much bigger final bankroll. Chief among those was the results of the Noble Damsel at Belmont. We managed to tab the $15 winner on top -- and when we get a nice price in the win column we like to back it up with some of the gimmicks. In this case we missed in a most frustrating way.

Occasionally we'll dip more than four deep in a race with our picks. There a a few reasons for this. Sometimes one of ours is on the AE list. Other times there is good reason to anticipate scratches. And then sometimes we just feel that things get murky down in those last two or three spots and so we mention the contenders that seem fairly equal. That was the case on Saturday and our fifth pick bit us in the behind!

In the Noble Damsel our top pick won, with that afore-mentioned fifth pick running second, and our fourth pick was third, with our third and second selections right behind. But because our standard wagering template typically only dips to the fifth pick in event of a scratch -- we wound up on the outside looking in when it came to the gimmicks. And -- ouch! -- they were nice. A $51.00/$2 exacta, $358.50 tri, and $3284.00 for the super! Going five-deep with a box typically isn't recommended -- but with the decent price on the top selection it certainly was within reason to key that one on top, putting that very generous superfecta well within the realm of affordability. And so it goes... Still, a fun day with lots of opportunity to make some dough.

WAGERED: $640.00
COLLECTED: $646.50

Turf wagers are turf only


Our new Head-to-Head feature pits Coast-to-Coast's Seth Merrow against DRF's Weekend Warrior, Mike Watchmaker. Whenever the two columns make selections in the same race we'll tally the results for each.


And Coast-to-coast puts a check-mark in the "W" column -- and moves ahead in the win-ROI category this week.

Equidaily.com/Coast-to-Coast...Seth Merrow... 3-1-0-0 [Year-to-date -- from 9/10/05: 8-1-1-4, $15.60].
Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Ladies Turf... Ran 4th at 9-5.
Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Turf... Ran 4th at 7-1.
Belmont: Noble Damsel... WON ($15.60, 6.40, 4.20).

DRF/Weekend Warrior... Mike Watchmaker... 3-0-0-1 [Year-to-date -- from 9/10/05: 8-1-1-2, $5.90].
Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Ladies Turf... Ran 3rd at 5-2.
Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Turf... Ran 6th at 4-1.
Belmont: Noble Damsel... Ran 9th at 7-2.

(Head-to-Head results above are only for those races which were common to both columns. Weekend Warrior might have tabbed other races not reflected in the results above.)

Best Bets

We'd have to go back and check but, if it's happened at all it hasn't happened very often that we've missed scoring at least one winner two weeks in a row. But it happened the last two weeks as we struggled to get back into the groove after concentrating on Saratoga daily during the prior six weeks. But we always preach that if the handicapping is solid you can't panic. Stay the course and the close results will eventually turn in your favor.

We roared back this week with a vengeance! Our $31 cumulative $2 win-bet total this week works out to a phenomenal 210% ROI in that category. But perhaps more importantly, it wiped out the deficit we'd racked up in the past two weeks and allowed us to leave the month of September with a positive Best Bets result. We tabbed thirteen Best Bets for the month. Therefore, $2 win-bet on each would have cost $26. The $31 accounted for this week means the September win-bet ROI is a decent 19%.

Belmont, Race 9, Bright Abundance... WON (15.60, 6.40, 4.20).
Monmouth, Race 9, What's Your Edge... WON (9.80, 3.20, 3.00).
Calder, Race 10, Blazing Rate... WON (5.60, 3.60, 3.60).
Kentucky Downs, Race 14, Rayon... Ran 4th at 7-1.
Fairplex, Race 12, Chummin... Ran 2nd at 4-1 (xxx, 4.80, 3.60).

Belmont: Noble Damsel Hcp G3 $150K

Bright Abundance 6-1
My Lordship 7-5
Asti 13-1

Path of Thunder completed the $3284.00/$2 super.

Wager: $5 WP on Bright Abundance.
Collected $55.00 on the WP ($15.60, 6.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-4-5.

Bright Abundance...Traffic in last couple -- and just missed in last despite of it. Returns to site of her two best US races.
Stupendous Miss...Beaten by a champ last time -- but was so well beaten it raises concerns. Let's hope that one was a fluke and she returns to prior form which makes her a player here.
Path of Thunder...Hmmm, 3-for-5 this season, with only two off the board finishes in graded stakes tries. In against graded company again today, but fits on best.
My Lordship.

Monmouth: NATC Futurity/Fillies $200K

Sparkling Pink 3-1
More Than Pretty 4-1
Good Conduct 13-1

Wager: $5 WP on More Than Pretty.
Collected $13.00 on the WP (xxx, 5.20).
...$4 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $19.30 on the ex box ($38.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $115.50 on the tri box ($231.00/$2).

More Than Pretty...This filly seems to be getting the hang of it through four starts and could be tough with a clean break. Top jock onboard.
Little Miss Zip...Tough call here. Probable fave dusted NY-breds twice -- once a $100+K stake. But faltered against open stakes company -- albeit the G2 Adirondack against the talented Folklore. Very tough if able to duplicate state-bred form.
Sparkling Pink...Another that looks to be improving.
Good Conduct.

Monmouth: NATC Futurity $200K

What's Your Edge 7-2
Diabolical 1-2
Rock Creek Pass 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on What's Your Edge.
Collected $32.50 on the WP ($9.80, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $24.40 on the ex box ($24.40/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $12.20 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $41.40 on the tri box ($82.80/$2).

What's Your Edge...Violette trainer made winning debut at Spa on 8/1. NY-bred might have the talent to fit here -- particularly if able to improve in second career start. Bravo rides.
Diabolical...Impressive debut. Regressed a little in G3 Sapling. Dangerous in third start however.
Rock Creek Pass...Solid second in debut at Arlington. Will contend here with any kind of improvement.

Calder: Judy's Red Shoes $75K

Aclassysassylassy 7-2
Ragtime Hope 6-1
Flying Circle 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Skiffs Angel.
Ran 9th at 5-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-9.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected 29.00 on the ex box ($58.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $110.00 on the tri box ($220.00/$2).

Skiffs Angel...Took a brief early summer break and seems to have returned better for it.
Ragtime Hope...Returns to grass which looks like her preferred surface.
Aclassysassylassy...Super 2YO season last year. Obviously some problems though with only one race this year. Off since April so fitness has to be a concern.
Flying Circle.

Calder: Brave Raj BC $150K

Mia's Reflection 4-1
A Sea Trippi 6-1
Prospect of Love 7-2

Siren Cove scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Siren Cove.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-5-6.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-5-6.

Siren Cove...Looks to be on the improve. Closed well at 7F.
Mia's Reflection...Hmm, last either signified a wake-up call was delivered -- or perhaps she just liked the wet-fact track. We'll know more today.
Prospect of Love...Just ahead of top pick last time in a vastly improved performance -- but another that might have been aided by an off-track.
Lake Alice.

Calder: Foolish Pleasure BC $150K

Blazing Rate 9-5
D'broken Speed 33-1
Tizzys No Saint 3-1

Wager: $5 WP on Blazing Rate.
Collected $23.00 on the WP ($5.60, 3.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.

Blazing Rate...Solid debut followed by good second in stake behind the talented In Summation.
Rehoboth...Solid, steady progress in five career starts.
Tizzy No Saint...Behind In Summation in a couple starts here this summer, then fourth behind First Samurai and Henny Hughes in the G1 Hopeful.
R Loyal Man.

Calder: Needles $75K

Dream On Dream On 5-1
Looks Good Junic 41-1
Lord Robyn 2-1

Wager: $5 WP on Qureall.
Ran 9th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-9.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-6-9.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-3-6-9.

Qureall...Second to Lost in the Fog two back. Kind of has the look of one wanting this to be rained off the turf -- but looks capable of handling these if it stays on and he takes to the grass.
Lord Robyn...Very tough when he runs his best. Layoff is a concern but trainer seems OK in that department.
Dream On Dream On...Also off since July but recent work seems to indicate fitness. Could be the one to catch.
Magic Speed.
Talented Prince.

Hawthorne: Hawthorne Gold Cup G2 $750K

Super Frolic 4-1
Lord of the Game 11-1
Desert Boom 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Perfect Drift.
Ran 4th at 4-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $43.90 on the ex box ($87.80/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-6.

Perfect Drift...Tough to use this guy on top over the past couple of season and close-up second in Pac Classic was just more of the same. But he's gotten over the hump twice in 2005 and he has experience at the trip and on the track.
Good Reward...Interesting entrant from Phipps/McGaughey could add some value here. Has been turfing and facing the likes of Powerscourt and Artie Schiller. Won G1 Manhattan two back. Last time on dirt finished fourth behind Rock Hard Ten and Imperialism. Trainer good going turf-to-dirt.
Lord of the Game...If it weren't for Lava Man this guy would have 'Claim of the Year' title wrapped up. Last few haven't been bad -- but not his best. Returns to track he obviously relishes. Distance is a question mark.
Super Frolic.

Kentucky Downs: Yaqthan $50K

Seeking Answers 7-5
Rochester 5-2
Gallo Del Bar 20-1

Wager: $5 WP on Seeking Answers.
Collected $26.00 on the WP ($6.20, 4.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-7.

Seeking Answers...Facing the likes of Senor Swinger, Artie Schiller and the promising Funfair over last three. This bunch should prove easier.
Tempered Steel...Certainly capable on best. Not a stakes veteran but this isn't the toughest stakes field going.
BA Way...Struggling in 2005 but will also appreciate this company if able to negotiate a clean trip.
Everything to Gain/Bail Out the King.

Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Turf Dash $100K

Durban Thunder 3-1
Atticus Kitty 11-1
Super Fuse 3-1

Wager: $5 WP on Super Fuse.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-5-8.

Super Fuse...Closing punch and inside post might prove beneficial in here.
Tacirring...Clearly the one to beat but the extra furlong might bring him back to the field late.
Atticus Kristy...Another with some early speed and has shown ability to sit just off the pace and run late.
Premier Performer.

Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Ladies Turf $100

Miss Wellspring 10-1
Juliet's Kiss 24-1
Fast Cookie 5-2

Very Very scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Spring Season.
Ran 4th at 9-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 3-4-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 3-4-9.

Spring Season...Closed well but was just too far back against tough Aussie import last time. In good form but jock needs to be a little closer early today.
Fast Cookie...Mott has been going well since springtime and this gal is capable in here on best effort.
Very Very...Seems to be on the improve and coming out of a win on this course just last week.
Kaylan's Rose.

Kentucky Downs: Ky Cup Turf Hcp G3 $200K

Silverfoot 7-5
Rochester 5-2
Gallo Del Bar 20-1

Wager: $5 WP on Rayon.
Ran 4th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $6.70 on the ex box ($13.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-6.

Rayon...As stated earlier, trainer Mott going well this year and while this one is not a stakes performer he's put together three good-looking runs this season and has experience going a distance.
Rochester...Regular readers of our Saratoga picks know that we hold Sheppard/Augustin runners in high regard -- but we also hope for a price. This guy is talented. Likes the track and the trip. But he won't offer a lot of value and it's a concern that he hasn't won in 2004-05.
Pellegrino...Has been facing some good ones in SoCal this season in including the bear, Leroidesanimaux.

Turfway: Marfa $75K

Level Playingfield 7-2
Korbyn Gold/entry 5-2
With Distinction 2-1

Korbyn Gold coupled with Sterling Gold.

Wager: $5 WP on Sterling Gold.
Collected $10.50 on the WP (xxx, 4.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $13.90 on the ex box ($27.80/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $41.20 on the tri box ($82.40/$2).

Sterling Gold...Has been a monster since springtime. Ran second in latest -- with wide trip. Should go well here.
With Distinction...Has been facing some good ones and have to like the recent race over the track.
Level Playingfield...Typically part of the action.
Deer Lake.

Fairplex: Pomona Derby $100K

Dover Dere 5-2
Chummin 4-1
Ninety Five 10-1

Texcess scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Chummin.
Collected $12.00 on the WP (xxx, 4.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $17.00 on the ex box ($34.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-6.

Chummin...Lightly raced and could be an improved animal since winter-spring break. Had trouble in dud two back, let's throw that one out. Just missed in prep for this. Has enough speed to be close and get first jump into the lane.
Khyber Pass..Plenty of early foot and that's key on this oval. Lack of finishing punch is a slight concern.
Dover Dere...Graded stakes performer will be tough on best -- but seems like he isn't in top form now.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed in event of a scratch.
Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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