Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, June 11, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

The day got off to a pretty good start and we continued to nibble all afternoon, but we never did manage to bite into and chew enough value to get us over the hump.

Three winners in thirteen races (Belmont, $2.80, $7.80; Monmouth, $2.60). And, as noted, some small value gimmicks filled out the day.

WAGERED: $566.00
COLLECTED: $309.20

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets
Belmont, Race 4, Storm Minstrel... Scratched.
Belmont, Race 10, America Alive... 8th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 11, Giacomo... 7th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 12, Smart Growth... Scratched.
Monmouth, Race 10, Cacht Wells... 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 9, Atlas Valley... 4th at 9-2.

Belmont Stakes G1 $1 mil
Afleet Alex 1-1
Andromeda's Hero 11-1
Nolan's Cat 20-1

Wager: $5 WP on Giacomo.
Ran 7th at 5-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-7.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $22.00 on the ex box ($44.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-7-8.

Giacomo... Still feel this guy might be sitting on a good one. We're going a little bit more on faith than on what's in black-and-white in the PPs, but follwing these 3YOs at this time of year allows for a little more 'trip handicapping' than usual and we've liked this guy since the SA Derby which we thought was a 'sneaky-good' performance. Smith did a fine job onboard in the Derby but was outridden in the Preaknes by Jeremy Rose. Going into the far turn the two horses were side-by-side and Rose ducked to the rail -- and Smith elected not to follow. Turning for home things opened up for Afleet Alex while Giacomo was looking for running room. We expect a better trip today and hope that Smith reverts back to Giacomo's earlier style and is not sitting so far off the early pace.
Afleet Alex... Clearly the most consistent of the 3YO class and looks like the one to beat off of the sensational Preakness. But things like the heat, his training schedule and the distance are all question marks and leave him a somewhat vulnerable favorite.
Southern Africa... We'd say he's getting a stern test here -- moving into G1 company -- but take a closer look, eight of the eleven in this field are still eligible for 'NW2 other than'. Improving and looked good taking the G3 Lone Star Derby. Should be a factor if the trip doesn't stop him.
Andromeda's Hero... We debated between this guy and Reverberate for this fourth spot. This one gets the nod on the experience of the trainer. Brings in something of a Birdstone scenario -- plenty of early promise then faltered in the Derby. But Birdstone probably had a little more back class than this guy. We'll see.

Belmont: White Carnation $70K

Madonna Lily 7-1
Judy Soda 2-1
Strategy 6-5

Storm Minstrel scratched.
Judy Soda DQ'd from 1st to 2nd

Wager: $5 WP on Storm Minstrel.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $24.30 on the ex box ($48.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $38.75 on the tri box ($77.50/$2).

Storm Minstrel... Stakes-placed vs open company and stakes winner vs these types of restricted fields. Trainer going well. Stretching out off of three good sprint efforts.
Strategy...Looks to be improved as a 4YO and likes this track.
Judy Soda...Rounding into good form.
Madonna Lily.

Belmont: True North BC Hpc G2 $200K

Woke Up Dreamin 5-1
Voodoo 25-1
Mass Media 5-1

Wager: $5 WP on Key Deputy.
Ran 9th at 7-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-9.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-9.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-9.

Key Deputy...Lifetime best Beyer in seasonal debut and Mott has good second-off the layoff stats.
Smokume... Ran perhaps best race yet in first of 2005. Might rate higher except jock on an oh-fer at the meet.
Willy o'the Valley...Seems improved as a 4YO but is one of those under current tutelage of Dutrow assistant while boss in on suspension.
Woke Up Dreamin.

Belmont: Just a Game BC Hcp G2 $300K

Sand Springs 7-1
Intercontinental 3-5
Wonder Again 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on Intercontinental.
Collected $6.50 on the WP (xxx, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-8.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected 17.80 on the ex box ($35.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $61.00 on the tri box ($122.00/$2).

Intercontinental...Lightly raced since arriving in US but impressive. Place horse in last came back to win G3 at Churchill last weekend.
Riskaverse...Ran fourth off layoff in this race last year but if she can duplicate the Beyer number of that effort she should be solid against these.
Wonder Again...Also coming back from a layoff but working well.
Sand Springs.

Belmont: Riva Ridge BC Hcp G2 $200K

Lost in the Fog 2-5
Egg Head 9-2
Middle Earth 27-1

Wager: $2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $3.70 on the ex box ($7.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-8.

Lost in the Fog... Undefeated and unchallenged.
Survivalist...We'd toss this guy in any 'Pick' bets. If the speed collapse up front this one shoulds be there to pick up the pieces.
Egg Head... Can Migliore let Lost in the Fog slip away early? And if not, will the two duel themselves to defeat?
Tani Maru.

Belmont: Race 8-9-10-11 $1 mil guaranteed Pick Four

$1 P4
Race 8... Lost in the Fog/Survivalist
Ran 1-4.
Race 9... Limehouse/Funny Cide
Ran 1-4.
Race 10... America Alive/Meteor Storm
Ran 7-8.
Race 11... Giacomo/Afleet Alex
Ran 1-7.

Belmont: Brooklyn Hcp G2 $250K

Limehouse 5-2
Gygistar 2-1
Royal Assault 17-1

Cuba DQ'd from 3rd to 5th

Wager: $5 WP on Limehouse.
Collected $29.25 on the WP (7.80, 3.90).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5 (4th after DQ).
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $13.20 on the ex box ($26.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5(4)-6.

Limehouse... Improved nicely in first three starts of 2005 then had trouble at Oaklawn. Won last and looks ready to return to top form.
Funny Cide...Solid string of works leading into Pimlico Special but off-track wasn't to his liking. Of course he's known to be averse to heat as well. He should be tighter today -- but...
Gygistar... Not his best distance but should have a slight class edge on some of these.
Evening Attire.

Belmont: Manhattan G1 $400K

Good Reward 14-1
Relaxed Gesture 13-1
Artie Schiller 9-5

Wager: $5 WP on America Alive.
Ran 8th at 5-1
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 7-8.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 4-6-7-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 4-6-7-8.

America Alive...A solid truf career that was topped by G1 win at Churchill last time. At the top of his game and wokring well.
Meteor Storm...Won this race last year and comes out of a good second to top pick in latest. Undefeated at the trip.
Saint Stephen..Brings in good form off three improving wins.
Artie Schiller.

Monmouth: Longfellow $65K

Don Six 1-5
Bold Days 14-1
Dashboard Drummer 5-1

Wager: $5 exacta Don Six over Wild Jam.
Ran 1-6.
...$2 tri key Don Six over next three.
Collected $46.20 on the tri box ($46.20/$2).

Don Six...Graded stakes winner looks too tough for these.
Wild Jam...Fourth in a similar stake last time but looks second-best today.
Dashboard Drummer...Another that should fit with this bunch.
Bold Days.

Monmouth: Battlefield $60K

Revved Up 2-1
Tam's Terms 7-1
Cacht Wells 2-1

Grand Heritage scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Cacht Wells.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-3-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-6.

Cacht Wells...Third start off layoff. Improving form shown in first two.
Revved Up...Sat out most of 2004. Finally getting a chance to string a few together.
American Freedom...Wno a G3 here last time. Not sure this is his best distance however.
Grand Heritage.

Delaware: Brandywine Hcp $100K

Cherokee's Boy 7-1
Separato 5-1
Ouagadougou 15-1

Wager: $5 WP on Super Frolic.
Ran 4th at 5-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-6.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-4-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-6-7.

Super Frolic...First two of 2005 look like he's at top of his game. In new barn and trainer is red-hot this meet.
Clays Awesome...Solid, improving form includes a second in a G3 here last time.
Cherokee's Boy... Another that has come back to start the season well.
The Lady's Groom.

Churchill: Dogwood BC G3 $150K

Miss Matched 7-1
Culinary 2-1
Caroline's Gold 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Atlas Valley.
Ran 4th at 9-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-6.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.

Atlas Valley...Seems to be putting it all together since arriving in Kentucky this spring.
Gallant Secret...Third in the G1 Ky Oaks makes her one to reckon with in here.
Caroline's Gold...Looks to be an improved 3YO.
Miss Matched.

Hollywood: Whittingham Memorial Hcp G1 $350K

Sweet Return 4-1
Red Fort 1-1
Vangelis 3-1

Wager: $5 WP on Vangelis.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-3.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $12.50 on the ex box ($25.00/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $34.00 on the tri box ($68.00/$2).

Vangelis...Seems to be steadily improving and looks ready to pop for Frankel.
Red Fort...Two solid tries since arriving stateside.
Sweet Return...Another that could be ready to run big.
Just Wonder.

Golden Gate: Berkley Hcp $100K

Desert Boom 5-1
Easy Million 5-1
Yougottawanna 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Smoocher.
Ran 4th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 2-4-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-4-6-7.

Smoocher...Just seems to be getting better for Hollendorfer.
Easy Million...And likewise, this guy is improving since arriving in Sherman barn.
Skipaslew...Second to the good Limehouse last time.
Best Minister.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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