Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, March 12, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

As we said, there was some value out there on Saturday, and we grabbed some of it -- and just missed on one big chunk.

Three winners on top in twelve races (Aqueduct, $12.20; Fair Grounds, $3.00, 3.60). But it was the gimmicks where we had the most success on the day -- and a bit of frustration...

We managed to pick up three boxed tri's -- and a couple of them offered decent value. We also picked up a square price on the Louisiana Derby exacta box ($149.40/$2), but that's the race that left us wondering what might have been.

Our top pick, Vicarage, went off a juicy 21-1. He put up a good fight but didn't have enough in the lane to get to the winner, our fourth pick, 5-2 High Limit. Those two combined for that nice exacta -- but we missed the tri box by less than a length as our third pick, Wallstreet Scandal, ran fourth at 9-1. The tri with 5-1 Storm Surge in the show spot paid $907.80/$2 -- so ours would have been over a thousand.

It could have been a very, very, very good day. But, what the heck, it was a very good day and that's still OK.

WAGERED: $461.00
COLLECTED: $613.50

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets, 3/12/05

We went 1-for-2 with a scratch -- but our miss was still pretty good as Vicarage ran second at 21-1. Unfortunately we've been plagued by some second-place finishes since we debuted our Best Bets feature in January. And a couple have been at a square price. To give you an idea -- a $2 win bet on each Best Bet since January is just a smidge below break-even at this point... But a $2 place wager on each would have cost $68.00 and would have returned $91.50.

Fair Grounds, Race 2, Mr Malaprop... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.20).
Fair Grounds, Race 6, Vicarage... 2nd at 21-1 (xxx, 16.80, 9.80).
Santa Anita, Race 3, Memorette... Scratched.

Aqueduct: Toboggan H'cp G3 $100K

Primary Suspect 7-2
Shake You Down 4-5
Houston's Prayer 9-5

Wager: $5 exacta Shake You Down over Primary Suspect.
Ran 2/1.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Collected $55.50 on the ex box ($22.20/$2).

Shake You Down...Not sure he's capable against the best anymore - but latest indicates he should fit here.
Primary Suspect.

Aqueduct: Broadway H'cp $75K

High Peaks 5-1
Travelator 3-1
Schemer 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on High Peaks.
Collected $48.25 on the WP ($12.20, 7.10).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $27.75 on the ex box ($55.50/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $114.00 on the tri box ($228.00/$2).

High Peaks...Might be tough to run down if able to get an easy lead early.
Gold Like U...Solid string of improving efforts since return. Trainer and jock both having good meets.
Schemer...Likes the track and also seems on the improve.

Laurel: Conniver $50K

Chrusciki 6-1
Glory of Love 7-5
Richetta 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Glory of Love.
Collected $8.00 on the WP (xxx, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-DNF.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $27.10 on the ex box ($54.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $76.60 on the tri box ($153.20/$2).

Glory of Love...Claimed from Lake two back and followed with her best race yet -- although dropped on a DQ. At the top of her game.
Glory Lane...Undefeated and improving in each start.
Richetta...Overmatched in the Fritchie -- but fits with these.

Gulfstream: Richter Scale BC H'cp G2 $200K

Sir Shackleton 8-5
Lion Tamer 8-5
Clock Stopper 3-1

Value Plus scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Lion Tamer.
Collected $7.00 on the WP (xxx, 2.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $13.60 on the ex box ($13.60/$2).
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $6.80 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $15.00 on the tri box ($30.00/$2).

Lion Tamer...Defending champ's only knock is the layoff -- but Pletcher is OK in that department.
Sir Shackleton...Seasonal debut was too good to ignore.
Clock Stopper...Been knocking head with the best sprinters and doing well -- just not winning too much.
Value Plus.

Fair Grounds: Louisiana Derby G2 $600K

High Limit 5-2
Vicarage 21-1
Storm Surge 5-1

Wager: $10 WP on Vicarage.
Collected $84.00 on the WP (xxx, 16.80).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $74.70 on the ex box (149.40/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-9.

Vicarage...It all adds up here. Pletcher trains. Big jock switch to Velazquez. Third off a layoff and stretching off of two sprints. Like him.
Wallstreet Scandal...Seems to have matured nicely as a 3YO. Goes turf-to-dirt.
Indy Storm...We liked him in the alw at Gulfstream a couple of weeks ago and we're encouraged that Zito comes back in this spot after this guy had some trouble in that last race.
High Limit.

Fair Grounds: Krantz Memorial H'cp $100K

Warning Zone 9-5
Sister Swank 3-1
Gamble to Victory 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Spectacular Lisa.
Ran 12th at 13-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 8-13.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 2-8-9-13.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-8-9-13.

Spectacular Lisa...Has run second twice since coming back from long layoff. Now goes dirt-to-turf. Won nicely last time she made that move.
May Gator...We liked her in last -- but she flopped late. We'll toss that effort and hope for a return to prior good form.
Sister Swank...Cut back in distance should help -- but post won't.

Fair Grounds: FG Oaks G2 $300K

Summerly 1-2
Carlea 28-1
Runway Model 2-1

Wager: $5 WP on Summerly.
Collected $13.00 on the WP ($3.00, 2.20).
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-6.

Summerly...Same track and trip as G3 Silverbulletday win. Why not a repeat?
Enduring Will...Jock got some experience on her last time -- she should move forward.
Runway Model...A real "throw-back". Started her 2YO season in April and ran ten times last year. She'll contend in the division but might need a start or two to reach peak form.
Eyes On Eddy.

Fair Grounds: New Orleans H'cp G2 $500K

Badge of Silver 4-5
Limehouse 6-1
Second of June 11-1

Wager: $5 WP on Badge of Silver.
Collected $15.50 on the WP ($3.60, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $17.80 on the ex box ($17.80/$2).
...$1 ex box top four.
Collected $8.90 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-8.

Badge of Silver...Developing into a nice one and looked good winning G3 Hal's Hope last time.
Limehouse...Like the effort in the Sunshine Millions Classic. Makes third start off layoff.
Musique Toujours...Might be tough to run down if able to clear Wanderin Boy early.
Pollard's Vision.

Oaklawn: Azeri BC G3 $175K

Injustice 7-1
Colony Band 3-1
Island Sand 8-5

Wager: $5 WP on Casual Attitude.
Ran 4th at 4-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-5.

Casual Attitude...Seems to be at the top of her game and likes the track.
Colony Band...Still a little bit of an unknown from Pletcher -- but US debut was very good.
Island Sand...Beaten fave -- by top pick -- last time. Might have needed that effort. She was competitive in top company last season.

Santa Anita: China Doll $75K

Thatswhatimean 6-1
Cee's Irish 3-1
On London Time 15-1

Memorette, Single Market scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Memorette.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-6.
...$1 tri box top four.

Memorette...Moves from a close-up second in a G1 into this $75K event. Looks tough against this bunch.
Conveyor's Angel...Has flourished since moving to the green.
Single Market...Frankel filly will need to move up -- but certainly there's room for improvement after only two starts.

Santa Anita: Crystal Water H'cp

Cozy Guy 3-1
Early Snow 15-1
Running Free 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Lava Man.
Ran 5th at 3-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-5.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-8.

Lava Man...Didn't enjoy the east coast scenery -- let's look for a rebound to good form with return to SoCal.
Super Strut...Comes back in nine days off of a solid effort this track and trip.
Cozy Guy...Like top pick he should appreciate the home cooking.

Santa Anita: Santa Margarita H'cp G1 $300K

Tarlow 6-1
Dream of Summer 9-1
Miss Loren 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on AP Adventure.
Ran 5th at 4-1.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-5.
...$1 ex box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-5.

AP Adventure...Got career off to a promising start then spent some extended time on the bench. Second start back seemed to indicate she was rounding back to form -- but then might have bounced in latest. Could be tough if that's the case.
Miss Loren...Likes the track and brings a two race streak into this -- both stakes.
Tarlow...Outside post won't help -- but might be tough again on the front end.
Personal Legend.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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