Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, March 5, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

We wound up with twelve betting races on our card after the Baldwin moved off the turf at Santa Anita. We managed to squeeze at least a little something out of eight of those races, but we never did really find any value.

Four winners on top in twelve races (Gulfstream, $3.00; Fair Grounds, $4.80; Oaklawn, $2.60; Santa Anita, $5.00). Obviously not a lot of value on top. We did OK on a couple of races despite the short prices on top -- the Horatius at Laurel grabbed us a fair return on the gimmicks, as did the Mountain Valley at Oaklawn. Neither were bank-busters but they were decent given the prices involved.

We did have some regrets on the afternoon. First up was when scratches reduced the Aqueduct feature to a field of five. Our wagering template is sketchy enough when there is only a field of seven -- but when it was cut down to five our plays really weren't logical. So we took a little beat there -- but that's just how it works out sometimes.

Perhaps the biggest kick in the pants was the result of the Santa Anita Handicap. We noted in our analysis that we don't often believe in looking for a wise-guy reverse in order of finish from one stakes race to the next. However we chose to go with Imperialism over Rock Hard Ten despite the fact that RHT had won their most recent match-up. Sure enough Rock Hard Ten scores at a decent 7-2 while Imperialism failed to ever get in the hunt. Just goes to prove that you should always stick to your tried and true handicapping rules...

WAGERED: $527.00
COLLECTED: $288.90

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets, 3/05/05

Things worked out a little better for our Best Bets. Still not a lot of value but we scored twice in three races for a win ROI of 37%.

Laurel, Race 10, Distinctive Trick... 2nd at 2-1 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Mr Sulu... WON (4.80, 3.20, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 10, Betnow... WON (3.40, 2.10, 2.10).
Gulfstream, Race 12, Holy Panache... Scratched.

Aqueduct: Stymie H'cp $75K

Hydrogen 7-2
Aggadan 4-5
Song of the Sword 9-2

Wager: $5 WP on Aggadan.
Collected $6.50 on the WP (xxx, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $9.80 on the ex box ($19.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4-5.

Aggadan...Has been at the top of his game since late summer. Should be able to sit just off the early pace and make the first move into the lane.
Country Be Gold...Edged the top pick last time and is certainly eligible to do it again with the added distance -- but come-from-behind style makes it more of a chore.
Halo Malone...Should be with the early pace and could have enough to hold on for a piece.

Laurel: Horatius $50K

Diamond Wildcat 2-1
Distinctive Trick 2-1
Monster Chase 6-1

Wager: $5 WP on Distinctive Trick.
Collected $8.50 on the WP (xxx, 3.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $26.20 on the ex box ($26.20/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $13.10 on the ex box ($26.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $45.60 on the tri box ($91.20/$2).

Distinctive Trick...Ventured out of NY-bred company to win an open stake last time. Looks a bit better than these.
Diamond Wildcat...Progressed nicely through first three start then faltered badly in Whirlaway. Could rebound with cutback in distance and move in against a little softer bunch.
Timely Impulse...Has looked good, with improving Beyers in first two starts. Eligible to jump up and show further improvement. Nice work for this.
Monster Chaser.

Gulfstream: Bonnie Miss G2 $150K

Jill Robin L 10-1
In the Gold 2-1
Aspen Tree 5-2

Wager: $5 WP on Pleasant Chimes.
Ran 4th at 5-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 2-3-4-7.

Pleasant Chimes...Connections have unleashed some very nice stakes performers over the years and first couple of starts indicate this might be another.
Aspen Tree...Expect that the last set her up nicely for a good try today.
Cool Spell...That Tampa stakes win might indicate she returned to the races with some added maturity and talent.
In the Gold.

Gulfstream: Forward Gal G2 $150K

Letgomyecho 9-2
Little Money Down 6-1
Hot Storm 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Maddalena.
Ran 5th at 3-5.
...$4 exacta Maddalena over Bird Harbor.
Ran 5/4.
...$4 exacta box top two.
Ran 4-5.
...$4 tri key Maddalena over next three.
Ran 5/1-2-4.

Maddalena...Undefeated and untested.
Bird Harbor...Could be tighter in second start off the three-month layoff.
Little Money Down...Wired 'em last time -- including Bird Harbor.

Gulfstream: Swale G2 $150K

Lost in the Fog 1-2
Around the Cape 25-1
More Smoke 69-1

Wager: $5 WP on Lost in the Fog.
Collected $14.00 on the WP (3.00, 2.600>.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-4-6-10.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-6-10.

Lost in the Fog...Not thrilled with the NoCal to Florida to NoCal to Florida road trip -- but can probably be off the top of his very fast game and still take this.
Santana Strings...Second to top pick last time.
Straight Line...Won Churchill G3 in November -- and has been off since. Should go well but might not be cranked up for top try.
Up Like Thunder.

Gulfstream: GP H'cp G2 $300K

Eddington 8-5
Pies Prospect 9-2
Zakocity 8-1

Wager: $5 WP on Classic Endeavor.
Ran 8th at 5-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 3-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-5-8.

Classic Endeavor...Could be interesting if they revert back to front-running style and they let him sneak away.
Zakocity...Has been going well since summer and 4YO debut was bang-up.
Eddington...Three of his four lifetime wins have been over this track. But he has yet to prove he's a G1-level winner.

Gulfstream: Fountain of Youth G2 $300K

High Fly 1-1
Bandini 5-2
BB Best 16-1

Kansas City Boy scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Bandini.
Collected $8.50 on the WP (xxx, 3.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-4.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $6.30 on the ex box ($12.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-4.

Bandini...Has moved forward nicely through first three starts. Could be ready for this next step.
Papi Chullo...SoCal invader is stakes tested.
High Fly...Too early to give up on this one. Eligible to rebound big-time.
Kansas City Boy.

Fair Grounds: Dixie Poker Ace H'cp $75K

Mr Sulu 7-5
Bebe Garcon 15-1
Spritely Walker 6-1

Witt Ante scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Mr Sulu.
Collected $20.00 on the WP (4.80, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-8.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-8.

Mr Sulu...Back in against state-breds and reunited with Albarado. Adds up.
Witt Ante...A tiger in these La-bred stakes. Probably better on dirt however -- and post is tough.
Screen Idol...Let's toss the last over the small Delta Downs track. Should rebound with move back to a larger oval.
Spritely Walker.

Oaklawn: Mountain Valley $50K

Afleet Alex 1-5
Razor 4-1
Smoke Smoke Smoke 19-1

Wager: $5 W on Afleet Alex.
Collected $6.50 on the W (2.60).
...$4 exacta box top two.
Collected $14.40 on the ex box ($7.20/$2).
...$4 tri key Afleet Alex over Razor/Smoke Smoke Smoke.
Collected $59.20 on the tri key ($29.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $14.80 on the tri box.

Afleet Alex...Feel he is perhaps vulnerable off the layoff and getting popped in here unexpectedly -- but might be a bit too much for these.
Razor...Tempted to put this one on top off of the nice stakes win on 1/21 -- just not sure he's as good as the BC Juvie runnerup. But he wouldn't be a shock to take this.
Smoke Smoke Smoke...Second to Razor two back -- but that was first start off a layoff, this is third back. Should be heard from.
Dr Meatball.

Santa Anita: Santa Catalina G2 $200K

Declan's Moon 4-5
Going Wild 7-2
Spanish Chestnut 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Going Wild.
Collected $8.50 on the WP (xxx, 3.40).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $5.50 on the ex box ($11.00/$2).
...$1 tri key Going Wild over next three.
Ran 2/1-3-5.
...$1 tri key Juliesugardaddy over other three.
Ran 5/1-2-3.

Going Wild...Looks like plenty of speed to contend with -- but this guy proved capable on the front end going longer last time.
Juliesugardaddy...Could pick up the pieces if the speed collapses. Feel a little hinky about the 9% jock however.
Declan's Moon...Juvie champ makes 3YO debut and will face pressure from the get-go. Working well, but if he's vulnerable it's probably in this first start back.
Spanish Chestnut.

Santa Anita: Baldwin G3 $100K

Race moved off turf to main track
High Standards 7-1
Talking to John 9-1
Run Thruthe Sun 6-1

Sunny Sky, Cammies Future scratched.

No wagers -- off turf.
Wager: $5 WP on Sunny Sky.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Sunny Sky...Solid near-miss third in US debut behind the very good Dubleo. Layoff is a concern but trainer is OK there and this Euro-import has experience over less than firm turf -- and that might be helpful Saturday in SoCal.
High Standards...2-2 career record -- both dirt sprints. But working well and might add some value here.
Cammies Future...Another Euro-import that's been off awhile -- but has performed well over soft grass in the past.

Santa Anita: Kilroe Mile H'cp G1 $300K

Leroidesanimaux 3-2
Buckland Manor 10-1
Sweet Return 10-1

Wager: $5 WP on Leroidesanimaux.
Collected $21.50 on the WP (5.00, 3.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-4-5-7.

Leroidesanimaux...Pretty solid since arriving in Frankel barn last year -- and that includes three wins in four tries over this course.
Singletary...BC Turf hero has been on the bench since but last couple of works seem to indicate he's ready for a good try.
Meteor Storm...Antsy about using this bunch that have all been taking a break but, again, he's another that has the ability if ready and latest work says he could be.
Musical Chimes.

Santa Anita: Santa Anita H'cp G1 $1 mil

Rock Hard Ten 7-2
Congrats 14-1
Borrego 25-1

Wager: $5 WP on Imperialism.
Ran 7th at 9-2.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-7.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-5-6-7.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-5-6-7.

Imperialism...Typically I think it's a foolish wise-guy type play to pick a reverse in a 1-2 finish next time out -- it seems that more often than not the 1-2 finishers end up in the same 1-2 order again. But in this case I'm looking for the flip-flop. Solis got onboard last time and pulled out the best performance by this guy in awhile and in this third start back off a brief layoff this one might be ready to breakthrough.
Rock Hard Ten...Undefeated since moving in with Mandella and also should be ready for a good one in third start off the layoff.
Saint Liam...Has become a top performer in the division since moving in with Dutrow. We're still 'old school' though and have a tough time playing an East Coast shipper on top in a SoCal setting. But he's the one to beat.
Lundy's Liability.

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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