Equidaily Racing Journal



Saturday, January 22, 2005
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes

It was a pretty good afternoon. We managed to pick three winners on top in four races (Gulfstream, $5.40; Fair Grounds, $5.20; Oaklawn, $6.40). That's a healthy 113% ROI in the win category... Maybe we should stick with those win-only plays! So far since the beginning of the year we've played 28 Coast-to-coast races and we've picked 13 winners on top (46%). A $2 win bet on each of the 28 top picks would have cost $56.00 and would have returned $77.20 (38% ROI).

However we did manage a profit this week with our other plays. The day's topper of course was the stake at Gulfstream where we ours completed the cold superfecta ($91.60/$2). The bad news there is that our plays seldom include supers, but the good news is that we scored nicely with our other plays in the race including the exacta and tri. We squeaked out a couple of other gimmicks and that allowed us to post an overall ROI on our plays of nearly 50%. Can't sneeze at that!

WAGERED: $128.00
COLLECTED: $191.20

Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets, 1/22/05
Best Bets totals are not included in the numbers listed above.

These are the kind of days that are a little frustrating but ultimately the handicapping was solid... We only managed one winner on top in four races -- but our other three were second. Mogador closed well to just miss. Chauffe Au Rouge was even closer. And while Hortense was further back in his second-place finish I'm not convinced he wasn't best -- turning for home in the grass sprint at Santa Anita the horse was perhaps eight or nine horse from the rail. Meanwhile the eventual winner was able to save ground.

We were also a little disappointed in the value offered by all except Chauffe Au Rouge. The 3-1 offered on that one seemed fair -- but the others were shorter than we anticipated. We weren't expecting a whole lot but all three fields looked competitive enough that the prices were just a little less than we would have liked.

Overall since starting the new BEST BET feature at the beginning of the year we are maintaining a slight profit after picking five winners in fourteen races.

Gulfstream, Race 8, Mogador... 2nd by a neck at 4-5 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
Fair Grounds, Race 5, Chauffe Au Rouge... 2nd by a nose at 3-1 (xxx, 3.40, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Shadow Cast... Won (5.20, 3.20, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 5, Hortense... Ran 2nd by 1 1/2 at 3-2 (xxx, 2.80, 2.60).

Aqueduct: Aqueduct H'cp G3 $100K

Canceled due to snow storm.

Aggadan...Dutrow trainee hasn't missed an exacta finish since springtime. Should get some pace to shoot at in the lane.
Tales of Glory...And here's part of that early pace scenario. Likely to take them as far as he can go -- and it might be all the way.
New York Hero...Last was his first off-the-board finish over this surface -- but he had trouble in that one.
Lord Langfuhr.

Wager: $5 WP on Aggadan.
...$2 exacta box top two.
...$1 exacta box top four.
...$1 tri box top four.

Gulfstream: First Lady Hc'p G3 $100K

Savorthetime 8-5
Cologny 3-1
Ebony Breeze 5-2

Feline Story ran 4th to complete the $91.60/$2 super.

Wager: $5 WP on Savorthetime.
Collected $21.00 on the WO (5.40, 3.00).
...$4 exacta box top two.
Collected $42.00 on the ex box ($21.00/$2).
...$2 tri key Savorthetime over next two.
Collected $50.80 on the tri key ($50.80/$2).
...$1 tri key Cologny over other three.
Ran 2/1-3-4.

Savorthetime...Looks to be a little faster than these but post and short layoff need to be overcome. Steady string of works at Fair Grounds and Johnny V in the saddle should help.
Cologny...Let's hope she just didn't care for the off-going on the inner track last time -- if that's the case she might be hard to catch today.
Ebony Breeze...Might rate her higher but need to see her bounce back to previous good form after latest string of sub-par efforts.
Feline Story.

Fair Grounds: Truly Bound H'cp $60K

Shadow Cast 8-5
Family Business 6-1
Miss Confusion 24-1

Wager: $5 WP on Shadow Cast.
Collected $21.00 on the WP (5.20, 3.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-4.
...$2 tri key Shadow Cast over next two.
Ran 1/4-5.
...$1 tri key Storm's Darling over other three.
Ran 4/1-2-5.

Shadow Cast...Filly looked like she might be a player in the top echelon of her division after winning a G2 on this track last year -- but disappointed a little as the season progressed. Won a turf stake her in December upon return to Cajun country and might be primed for a good effort on the main track today.
Storm's Darling...Light's out eleven length winner over the track in latest. Might be hard to catch today but will have to contend with Miss Confusion early.
Chance Dance...Undefeated over the track -- yet another that won here last time out.
Family Business.

Oaklawn: American Beauty $50K

Souris 2-1
Saltwater Runner 4-1
Southern Surprise 13-1

Wager: $5 WP on Souris.
Collected $26.50 on the WP (6.40, 4.20).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-6.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $17.10 on the ex box ($34.20/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-6.

Souris...Asmussen 5YO is seldom out of the hunt and win in minor Sunland stake last time should set her up well for today.
Josh's Madelyn...Likes the track and the trip. Coming off of two big wins in Kentucky. But the three-month layoff is too much to overcome for us to put her on top.
Thermal Ablasion...Clearly can't leave her out of the gimmicks.
Saltwater Runner.

Santa Anita: San Marcos G2 $150K

Whilly 3-1
Puppeteer 3-1
TH Approval 17-1

Epicentre scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on License To Run.
Ran 5th at 4-5.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-5.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $12.80 on the ex box ($25.60/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5.

License To Run...Frankel turfer gets a tepid nod in this wide-open field. Brazilian import was impressive in US debut off of a six-month break. Will be tough if able to improve of off that run.
Puppeteer...Closed impressively going twelve furlongs in Florida stake. Will be rolling late.
Epicentre...Would rate higher expect this one has been off since June -- however Frankel had top pick ready off the layoff last time...

Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks


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