Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

by Seth Merrow

Saratoga Race Course
Wednesday, August 3, 2005
Meet Total ... 24-57

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Dark day. No racing.


Best Bets Week One: A Closer Look
We're off to a flaming-hot start!

With 24 winners on top in 57 races we're hitting at a phenomenal 42%! Even more impressive is the ROI. A $2 win bet on each of our top picks through the first six days would have cost $114.00 and would have returned $160.30. That works out to an ROI of 41%!

Overall favorites are winning at about 40% so far at the meet -- slightly the higher than the expected norm of 30-36%. And certainly we've had some of those favorites in our mix -- but we've also offered up enough value to help us to that 41% ROI.

And we're happy to read the emails from everyone who has benefitted from our Saratoga's Best Bets picks. Hopefully we provide another tool to put into your own handicapping toolbox to help you refine your selections. One caveat: It will be hard to maintain this pace throughout the meet -- but we'll certainly try!

Keep those (electronic) cards and letters coming!

We forgot to mention yesterday in our recap that after the races on Monday a number of the jocks doffed the silks and donned the gloves, headed over to the East Side Rec field and took on a team from the NY Sate Police in a charity softball game. Angel Cordero and John Velazquez shared the pitching chores. They were joined on the jockey team by the likes of Javier Castellano, Mike Luzzi, Norberto Arroyo, Richard Migliore, Cornelio Velasquez and others. Edgar Prado was on the sidelines handling the video camera. In a spirited duel the State Police squeaked out a 16-15 win but the jocks showed the know more than race-riding and had good plays on both sides of the field -- including a nice back-handed snag by Arroyo in left-field to end the sixth inning. Applause all around to these guys who took the time to lend their services to the charity despite having worked a full day at the track.

Today, beware. Don't take the inheritance to the track. This card looks like a money-eater. Very contentious.

El Guardaespalda...One of the few that comes into this with some decent 2005 form. Some might have a little more class than this one -- but are coming off layoffs. Trainer wins her share here.
Voss entry...Trainer usually does well at the meet. Both Big Brush and Barrington prepped here in training race on Open House Day.
Vintage Class...And yet another trainer known for getting some jump W's at the Spa. Off awhile but also ran in the training race on 7/24.

McKenna entry...Toughkenamon kicked off jump career with two nice wins. Should appreciate move out of graded stakes. Meet At Eleven seems to be getting the hang of it.
Monte Bianco...Three jump races so far -- and won two (DQ'd in one of those) and lost rider in the other.
Feeling So Pretty...11YO comes into this off of a couple of OK flat tries. Went well in two jump races prior.
Motel Affair.

Philosopher King...Speed then faded in debut. These are the kind that can step it up in their second start and trainer has solid stats in that area. Low Beyer fig might mean some rare value on Pletcher/Velazquez.
Asmussen entry...Both Cab and Doc O Dynamite look capable first time out of the box.
Political Force...Solid second in debut despite some trouble. The one to beat.
McKenzie Pass.

Homerette...Sire Grand Slam is OK with turfers. Two good tries sprinting on dirt -- now stretches to two turns after those two sprints, an angle we like.
Lakin entry...All three, Higher Incentive, My Interpretation, Interpretation look capable of stepping it up on the grass.
Summer Palace...Pletcher is solid first-time out of the box and this one drilled a bullet on the lawn on 7/25.
Mohegan Sky.

Mr Malaprop...Has been competitive against open company in Kentucky and Louisiana. Faltered last time with blinkers experiment -- drops those today. Solid work for this on 7/27.
Nohasslatdcastle...Seems to be in good, improving form and should stretch nicely after four solid one-turn tries at Belmont.
Raffit...Been off almost a year. Off well over a year prior to that. Runs away from these if able to duplicate early career form -- but that a big "if".
Edge Road.

Initially...Won two of his last four -- both times at this level.
Skip the Melody...Seems to fit with these.
Alexander...Last could indicate he's gotten the hang of the game -- but it's a big jump from $45K mdn clm to taking on winners.
Volcanic Glow/General Thomas.

Briviesca...After a steady diet of graded stakes -- and some near-misses -- they seem to have found a cozy spot for this one.
Sabellina...Is rounding into top form and likes the track. The one to beat.
Plenty...Could be tough to catch if allowed to sneak away early.
Cupid's Arrow.

EIGHTH RACE -- Cab Calloway NYSS $250K
Galloping Grocer...Some real question marks about his desire to go two-turns -- but looks to have a class edge on this bunch.
Gallucio entry...Meniscus looks like there's enough speed to keep him honest -- but could be tough if they let him get away. Organizer looks in a little deep but is lightly raced and still has some upside potential.
Twooutsintheninth...Capable of competing here on best.
Gold and Roses.

With Due Respect...Typically in the hunt and looks like a good fit at this level.
Unbridled Sunshine...Likely to take them as far as he can.
Miami Princess...Has been facing better and might wake-up with the class relief.
Tax Considerations.

If we are interested in both halves of an entry -- in event of a scratch -- it is noted that way. If only one-half of the entry is named, then we prefer that half and will move to our next pick listed in event of a scratch.

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