Equidaily Racing Journal

Today's Best Bets

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Saratoga Race Course
Thursday, August 5, 2004
Meet Total ... 15-66

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Yesterday

2-9. This is getting ridiculous! We stated yesterday that we hoped to reverse the trend from Week One where our top pick ran second seventeen times in 57 races... Well, we ran second five more times Wednesday!

It's frustrating because as we said last week -- the 'scorecard' is typically winners on top, however, we still feel good about the handicapping... For instance, a closer look at the first seven days shows that our top two picks completed the exacta thirteen times. Payoffs on those exactas ranged from a low of $11.20/$2 to a high of $75.00. An exacta box on our top two picks in every race so far this season would have returned a decent ROI of 44%. Again, at season's end the public handicappers will point to that win column -- but at the same time, the Best Bets picks have been solid through the early days of the meet despite the fact that we're in a little bit of a 'seconditis' slump.

Two winners on top Wednesday (4th, $5.60; 9th, $7.90). A cold $17.60/$2 exacta in the fourth (quinella, $9.80), and our fourth pick completed the $56.00 tri. Top two flip-flopped for exactas in the 7th ($49.80) and 8th ($27.20) and our fourth pick completed the tri in both of those events (7th, $234.50; 8th, $61.50). Plus there were a number of other gimmicks that might have been grabbed with some creative use of the picks.

On-track, 19,334 attended and enjoyed another very nice day. Rain hit the area Tuesday night but by racetime Wednesday things were very pleasant.


Today

Jockey Jerry Bailey is one win away from tying Angel Cordero's all-time win mark at Saratoga. Bailey current has 639 lifetime wins at the Spa. The record could be tied and broken on Thursday.

Early forecasts were pointing to some possible unsettled weather for Thursday -- but as of dawn it looks like another nice day on tap in the Spa City.

FIRST RACE
Raise A Storm...Won a similar event two back and followed up with a near-miss on the flat last time. Trainer took the jump race Wednesday at 10-1.
Serazzo...Voss trainee has solid 5-2-2-0 hurdle record.
Original Cast...Prepped with a nice win on the flat here on Open House day. Scratched from an easier spot yesterday.
Alkali Ike/Foretold.

SECOND RACE
Sis City...Trainer is 34% making the potent move from MSW to mdn clm. Showed speed and was competitive against those MSW types at Churchill.
My Muchacha...Expect this Mott filly to improve with one start under her belt.
Tizzy Rizzi...Also making the move from MSW to mdn clm and that debut effort was a decent fifth behind Balletto and that one looked good winning here on Monday.
Perfectly Quiet.

THIRD RACE
Sugar Punch...Dutrow filly makes third start of 2004 off of two daylight wins. Looks best in short field.
Camp On Wood...Was facing open company in Canada then shipped into F'Lakes to take a minor stake last time against state-breds.
Hurricane Hannah...Hard to fault the 5-2-3-0 record.
You Promised.

FOURTH RACE
Ready's Gal...Firster from Pletcher by sire More Than Ready. Would be no surprise to come out running.
Shop Again...That 7/29 work stands out.
Hurricane Annie...Trainer is crafty with 2YOs, particularly at this meet.
Mrs Muir.
More Moonlight.

FIFTH RACE
Orpington...Stepped up last time when dropped in for tag and blinkers added. Prado rides.
Gunning For...Showing nice, steady improvement last four on turf. AE list
Rush Into Heaven...Another AE lister. From Gill/Shuman, was facing stakes types on grass in SoCal this winter.
Gold Reserve...Won a similar event at Belmont last time in best effort yet.
Stealth Flier.
Defrocked.
On dirt: Diligent Gambler, Brite Memory, Rush Into Heaven, Who Is Chris G.

SIXTH RACE
Savoy Special...Third start off a layoff. Early speed. Likes the trip. Big jock switch. It all adds up.
Country Judge...In super form right now -- and has been running well in one-turn events downstate.
Formal Attire.

SEVENTH RACE
Lismore Knight...Adds the blinkers. Third start of 2004. Back to Velasquez. Could be ready for a big effort.
Third Half...Frankel trainee clearly likes the trip and is coming out of a winning run at Belmont.
He's Crafty...Horse-for-course might be our top pick but could face some early pace pressure from L'Oiseau d'Argent. If that one should scratch this guy will be mighty hard to catch.
L'Oiseau d'Argent.
On dirt: Third Half, Quigley, Megoman, Fast Decision.

EIGHTH RACE - NY Stallion $250K
Raf's Society Girl...Crafty F'Lakes trainer brings this one cross-state with improving form in four 2004 starts. Picks up Prado to ride.
South Wing...Also shows improving form and might be tough to catch if able to get away cleanly from the rail.
So Sweet a Cat...Always in the hunt as 10-4-4-1 lifetime record reveals. Two-turns is the big question mark however.
Cat's Roar.

NINTH RACE
Sliding Home...Really stepped it up when moved to the green -- and jock switch is H-U-G-E.
Mackinac...Lukas/Paulsen runner didn't get to track until this year as a 4YO. Turf debut last time was best yet.
Katablastic...Trainer known to throw some bombs at the Spa.
Louie the Slew.
Lubnan.
On dirt: Sliding Home, Fog Buster, Broward County/Louie the Slew, Mackinac.


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